Australia has officially climbed to second place in the Eurovision 2026 betting odds just hours before tonight’s Second Semi-Final, completing one of the most dramatic market surges of the Eurovision season so far.
The Eurovision 2026 betting market is moving rapidly in Vienna.
Following last night’s Second Semi-Final Jury Show rehearsals, bookmakers across Europe have continued heavily backing Australia, pushing the country into second place overall behind Finland in the latest Winner market consensus aggregated by ESCToday.
Australia now stands at a 11.2% implied probability, narrowly overtaking Greece and becoming the latest major challenger in this year’s increasingly volatile Eurovision race.
Current Top 10 – Winner Market
| # | Country | Song | Win Probability | Avg Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Finland |
Liekinheitin | 37.1% | 2.07 |
| 2 |  Australia |
Eclipse | 11.2% | 6.86 |
| 3 |  Greece |
Ferto | 11.0% | 7.01 |
| 4 |  Denmark |
Før Vi Går Hjem | 8.9% | 8.62 |
| 5 |  Israel |
Michelle | 6.8% | 11.24 |
| 6 |  France |
Regarde ! | 4.5% | 17.00 |
| 7 |  Romania |
Choke Me | 3.4% | 22.71 |
| 8 |  Bulgaria |
Bangaranga | 2.9% | 26.47 |
| 9 |  Italy |
Per Sempre Sì | 2.3% | 33.86 |
| 10 |  Malta |
Bella | 1.7% | 44.31 |
Australia completes a stunning overnight rise
Australia’s rise through the market has been one of the biggest late-season shifts seen during Eurovision week.
Less than 48 hours ago, Eclipse sat outside the leading trio. Following strong reactions to Thursday night’s Jury Show rehearsal, bookmakers began aggressively shortening Australia’s odds throughout the afternoon.
That momentum has now culminated in Australia officially overtaking Greece and moving into second place overall ahead of tonight’s live Semi-Final broadcast.
The country’s 11.2% implied probability now places it firmly within the leading contenders group behind Finland.
Finland still remains dominant
Despite Australia’s rapid rise, Finland continues to hold a commanding lead at the top of the market.
Liekinheitin currently sits at 37.1%, maintaining a substantial advantage over the chasing pack and remaining the only country above the 30% threshold.
Bookmakers continue viewing Finland as the strongest overall package heading into the Grand Final weekend, with the country maintaining remarkable market consistency throughout Eurovision week.
Greece slips to third place
After spending several days as Finland’s closest challenger, Greece has now slipped into third place with an implied probability of 11.0%.
The drop is relatively small numerically, but symbolically significant as it marks the first time during Eurovision week that another country has overtaken Ferto in the Winner market.
The battle between Australia and Greece is now becoming one of the defining stories of the market ahead of tonight’s live show.
Denmark and Israel remain within striking distance
Denmark continues holding fourth place at 8.9%, while Israel remains stable in fifth with 6.8%.
Although both countries currently sit behind the leading trio, tonight’s Semi-Final still has the potential to dramatically reshape the market depending on qualification results and live audience reactions.
France continues in sixth position, while Romania and Bulgaria remain closely matched inside the broader contenders group.
Tonight’s Semi-Final could trigger another major market swing
Several countries currently inside the bookmaker top 15 will compete tonight in the Second Semi-Final, including Australia, Denmark, Bulgaria, Romania, Malta, Czechia and Ukraine.
Bookmakers are expecting significant volatility immediately following tonight’s live show and qualification reveal, particularly surrounding Australia’s ability to maintain or further strengthen its newly gained second-place position.
A strong live televote reaction tonight could potentially tighten the gap behind Finland even further.
Track the odds live
The ESCToday Eurovision Betting Odds Tracker aggregates live odds from 25 international bookmakers and updates automatically every 30 minutes throughout Eurovision week.
A word of caution
Betting odds reflect market sentiment, not certainty. Eurovision history has repeatedly demonstrated how quickly rehearsals, live broadcasts and qualification results can transform the competitive landscape.
The betting market offers a snapshot of the race as it stands now — but Eurovision 2026 remains wide open.
Public data sourced from 25 bookmakers including bet365, William Hill, Unibet, Betfair, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Sky Bet, Coral, Betway and more. Updated automatically every 30 minutes. Odds subject to change. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org
