The Eurovision 2026 betting market has reacted strongly following Thursday night’s Second Semi-Final Jury Show, with Australia emerging as the biggest mover ahead of tonight’s live broadcast. Finland continues to lead the race comfortably, but the battle behind the favourite is becoming increasingly volatile as bookmakers respond to final rehearsal reactions from Vienna.
With less than an hour remaining before the Second Semi-Final goes live, bookmakers across Europe have significantly adjusted their Eurovision 2026 Winner markets following last night’s crucial Jury Show performances.
According to the latest consensus data aggregated by ESCToday from 25 international bookmakers, Finland remains the clear favourite to win Eurovision 2026 with a 36.7% implied probability, but the biggest story of the day is Australia’s dramatic overnight surge into third place.
The latest movements suggest that the second half of the draw may be reshaping the competitive landscape just before tonight’s qualifiers are decided.
Current Top 10 – Winner Market
| # | Country | Song | Win Probability | Avg Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Finland |
Liekinheitin | 36.7% | 2.11 |
| 2 |  Greece |
Ferto | 11.8% | 6.54 |
| 3 |  Australia |
Eclipse | 10.1% | 7.62 |
| 4 |  Denmark |
Før vi går hjem | 9.4% | 8.21 |
| 5 |  Israel |
Michelle | 6.8% | 11.38 |
| 6 |  France |
Regarde ! | 4.5% | 17.20 |
| 7 |  Bulgaria |
Bangaranga | 3.0% | 25.40 |
| 8 |  Romania |
Choke Me | 2.9% | 26.67 |
| 9 |  Italy |
Per Sempre Sì | 2.4% | 32.84 |
| 10 |  Malta |
Bella | 1.7% | 45.92 |
Australia becomes the story of the day
The most dramatic market movement ahead of tonight’s Second Semi-Final comes from Australia.
Following Thursday night’s Jury Show rehearsal, bookmakers significantly shortened Australia’s odds, pushing Eclipse into third place overall with a 10.1% implied probability.
Only 24 hours ago, Australia sat outside the leading trio. Now, the country has overtaken Denmark and moved within touching distance of Greece, suggesting traders and bettors reacted extremely positively to the Australian staging and overall package during last night’s performance.
The movement positions Australia as tonight’s biggest market winner before a single televote has even been cast.
Finland remains firmly in control
Despite growing movement behind them, Finland continues to dominate the Eurovision 2026 Winner market.
Liekinheitin currently holds a commanding 36.7% implied probability, remaining the only country above the 30% threshold.
The Finnish entry has now maintained bookmaker leadership throughout Eurovision week and continues to display remarkable market stability even as other countries experience major fluctuations around it.
At this stage, bookmakers still view Finland as the clear act to beat heading into Saturday’s Grand Final.
Greece softens slightly but holds second place
After yesterday’s strong surge following the first Semi-Final Jury Show, Greece has softened slightly in today’s market update but remains in second position overall.
Ferto currently stands at 11.8%, maintaining a solid advantage over Denmark despite Australia’s rapid rise.
While some overnight correction appears to have taken place, Greece remains firmly positioned within the leading contenders group ahead of tonight’s live show.
Denmark slips as the market reshuffles
Denmark has fallen to fourth place following Australia’s rise but remains highly competitive at 9.4%.
Før vi går hjem continues to maintain one of the strongest average bookmaker profiles of the season and remains within striking distance of the podium positions.
With tonight’s Semi-Final still to come, Denmark remains one of the countries most capable of generating another major market reaction before the Grand Final.
Bulgaria enters the contenders conversation
One of the more interesting developments following the Jury Show is Bulgaria’s rise into seventh place.
Bangaranga now sits at 3.0%, narrowly ahead of Romania and establishing itself as one of tonight’s most closely watched entries from a betting perspective.
Bookmakers appear to have responded positively to Bulgaria’s Jury Show performance, with the country now entering the broader contenders group for the first time this week.
Second Semi-Final expected to reshape the market again
Tonight’s Second Semi-Final features several countries currently inside the bookmaker top 15, including Australia, Denmark, Bulgaria, Romania, Malta, Ukraine and Czechia.
With qualification results expected to trigger immediate market reactions later tonight, bookmakers are preparing for another potentially volatile shift in the Eurovision 2026 landscape before the Grand Final lineup becomes complete.
Several countries sitting outside the current top ten could still experience dramatic swings depending on tonight’s live performance reception and qualification outcome.
About the ESCToday Odds Tracker
The ESCToday Eurovision Betting Odds Tracker aggregates live odds from 25 international bookmakers and updates automatically every 30 minutes throughout Eurovision week.
Each bookmaker’s odds are converted into implied probabilities before bookmaker margins are removed and normalised into a unified market consensus.
Readers can currently explore:
- Winner market
- Televote Winner
- Jury Vote Winner
- Semi-Final qualification odds
- Top 5 / Top 10 / Top 15 markets
- Specials and regional markets
Track the odds live
Follow live Eurovision 2026 betting odds from 25 bookmakers, updated every 30 minutes throughout Eurovision week.
A word of caution
Betting odds reflect market sentiment, not certainty. Eurovision history has repeatedly demonstrated how dramatically rehearsals, jury shows and live broadcasts can reshape the market within hours.
The betting market offers a fascinating snapshot of the race as it stands today, but the Eurovision 2026 winner remains far from decided.
Public data sourced from 25 bookmakers including bet365, William Hill, Unibet, Betfair, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Sky Bet, Coral, Betway and more. Updated automatically every 30 minutes. Odds subject to change. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org
