Bookmakers’ odds have been a fairly accurate barometer for semifinal qualifiers in past contents. In the 2021 contest, aggregated odds on the days of the semifinals predicted nine out of ten qualifiers.

There are always one or two unexpected results, though. And that’s just as well, as we love to keep things exciting around here. Looking down the list of bookies’ hopefuls for the first semifinal of 2022 this evening, it’s time to ask: which countries will provide the first surprises of 2022?

The standing for qualification on the day of semifinal 1, as aggregated by OddsChecker, are as follows:

  1. Ukraine
  2. Greece
  3. Norway
  4. Netherlands
  5. Armenia
  6. Portugal
  7. Moldova
  8. Albania
  9. Latvia
  10. Austria
  11. Switzerland
  12. Iceland
  13. Lithuania
  14. Croatia
  15. Denmark
  16. Slovenia
  17. Bulgaria

Ukraine, Greece, Norway and Netherlands are on incredibly short odds, looking like dead certs; a winning bet will yield just 1-3% profit with most bookmakers.

Further down the table, Switzerland was pipping Austria for the coveted tenth position yesterday, the latter just edging forward into qualifying position in the last 24 hours. Punters plumping for either of them will more or less double their money on a successful outcome.

What are your predictions for tonight’s outcome? What have the bookies got wrong? Let us know in the comments!


Richard's ESC history began way back in 1992, when he discovered the contest could fuel his passion for music and languages. Since then, it's been there at every corner for him in some way or another. He joined the esctoday.com team back in 2006, and quickly developed a love for writing about the contest. In his other life, he heads the development team at the learning resources company Linguascope, and writes about all aspects of language learning on the site Polyglossic.com.