The Eurovision 2026 betting market reacted strongly following Monday night’s Semi-Final 1 Jury Show, with Greece making a significant move towards Finland at the top of the rankings. While Finland remains the bookmaker favourite, the gap between first and second place has narrowed considerably overnight.
Following the first Jury Show of Eurovision 2026, bookmakers across Europe have begun reshaping the Winner market, and the biggest story of the night belongs to Greece.
According to the latest consensus data aggregated by ESCToday from 25 international bookmakers, Finland remains in first place with a 33.6% win probability, but Greece has surged to 20.4%, dramatically reducing Finland’s lead after a strong reaction to last night’s performance.
The latest market movements suggest that the Eurovision 2026 race may now be entering a far more competitive phase.
Current Top 5 – Winner Market
| # | Country | Song | Win Probability | Avg Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Finland |
Liekinheitin | 33.6% | 2.27 |
| 2 |  Greece |
Ferto | 20.4% | 3.72 |
| 3 |  Denmark |
Før Vi Går Hjem | 9.8% | 7.76 |
| 4 |  France |
Regarde ! | 6.2% | 12.34 |
| 5 |  Australia |
Eclipse | 5.0% | 15.24 |
Greece closes the gap after Jury Show reaction
The biggest development of the day comes from Greece.
After Monday night’s Semi-Final 1 Jury Show, bookmakers significantly shortened Greece’s odds, pushing the country’s implied winning probability to 20.4%, its strongest position so far this Eurovision season.
Only 24 hours earlier, Finland appeared almost untouchable at the top of the market. Now, the gap between the two countries has narrowed to just over 13 percentage points, signalling growing bookmaker confidence in Greece’s overall winning potential.
The movement suggests that industry reaction to the Greek performance was particularly strong among both traders and bettors overnight.
Finland still leads the market
Despite Greece’s surge, Finland remains the clear bookmaker favourite heading into the next phase of Eurovision week.
Liekinheitin continues to hold first place across virtually all major operators monitored by ESCToday, maintaining a consensus probability of 33.6%.
While Finland’s lead has softened compared to previous days, bookmakers still view the Finnish entry as the strongest overall contender to win Eurovision 2026.
The coming rehearsals and live shows are now expected to determine whether Finland can stabilise its position or whether the market will continue tightening around the top two.
Denmark remains comfortably in third
Denmark continues to hold third place with a current probability of 9.8%.
Although now sitting some distance behind the leading pair, Før Vi Går Hjem remains one of the season’s strongest-performing entries in the betting market and continues to maintain solid support across bookmakers.
France and Australia complete the current top five, while Israel, Romania and Malta continue leading the broader contenders group.
Current contenders and outsiders
Beyond the leading five, the current market standings are becoming increasingly structured into distinct tiers.
Israel (4.7%), Romania (2.9%) and Malta (2.4%) currently form the core contenders group, while Italy, Sweden, Ukraine and Moldova remain among the leading outsiders should momentum shift later in the week.
Several countries are also expected to experience volatility following upcoming rehearsals and televised performances.
About the ESCToday Odds Tracker
The ESCToday Eurovision Betting Odds Tracker aggregates live odds from 25 international bookmakers and updates automatically every 30 minutes.
Each bookmaker’s odds are converted into implied probabilities before bookmaker margins are removed and normalised into a unified market consensus.
Readers can explore:
- Winner market
- Televote Winner
- Jury Vote Winner
- Semi-Final qualification odds
- Top 5 / Top 10 / Top 15 markets
- Specials and regional markets
Track the odds live
Follow live Eurovision 2026 betting odds from 25 bookmakers, updated every 30 minutes throughout Eurovision week.
A word of caution
Betting odds reflect market sentiment, not certainty. Eurovision history has repeatedly demonstrated how quickly momentum can shift following rehearsals, jury shows and live broadcasts.
The betting market offers a fascinating snapshot of the contest as it stands today, but the final result remains far from decided.
Public data sourced from 25 bookmakers including bet365, William Hill, Unibet, Betfair, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Sky Bet, Coral, Betway and more. Updated automatically every 30 minutes. Odds subject to change. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org
