The Eurovision 2026 betting market has reacted immediately following the results of the first Semi-Final in Vienna, with Finland strengthening its lead once again while several newly qualified countries experienced significant overnight movements.
One show down, two more to go.
Following Tuesday night’s first Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final, bookmakers across Europe have begun reshaping the market after viewers finally saw the first set of live competitive performances on stage in Vienna.
According to the latest consensus data aggregated by ESCToday from 25 international bookmakers, Finland remains the clear favourite to win Eurovision 2026 with a 36.4% implied probability, while Greece and Denmark continue to complete the leading trio.
Several countries that successfully qualified for Saturday’s Grand Final also saw their market positions improve overnight following the Semi-Final results announcement.
Current Top 10 – Winner Market
| # | Country | Song | Win Probability | Avg Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Finland |
Liekinheitin | 36.4% | 2.13 |
| 2 |  Greece |
Ferto | 13.1% | 5.90 |
| 3 |  Denmark |
Før Vi Går Hjem | 11.6% | 6.66 |
| 4 |  Israel |
Michelle | 6.6% | 11.77 |
| 5 |  France |
Regarde ! | 6.2% | 12.43 |
| 6 |  Australia |
Eclipse | 6.2% | 12.45 |
| 7 |  Romania |
Choke Me | 3.8% | 20.30 |
| 8 |  Italy |
Per Sempre Sì | 2.5% | 31.58 |
| 9 |  Malta |
Bella | 1.8% | 42.48 |
| 10 |  Ukraine |
Ridnym | 1.7% | 46.96 |
Finland consolidates its position after Semi-Final 1
After briefly seeing its lead reduced following the Jury Show reactions, Finland has regained momentum in the market following Tuesday night’s televised Semi-Final.
Liekinheitin now stands at a commanding 36.4% implied probability, once again creating a sizeable gap between Finland and the rest of the field.
The Finnish entry also benefited from a strong qualification performance, with bookmakers reacting positively to both audience response and overall stage impact during the live broadcast.
At this stage, Finland remains the only country above the 30% mark in the Winner market.
Greece and Denmark remain the closest challengers
Greece currently holds second place with a 13.1% consensus probability following a successful qualification from Semi-Final 1.
Despite losing some of the momentum gained after Monday’s Jury Show, Ferto remains firmly positioned among the strongest contenders for the Eurovision 2026 trophy.
Denmark continues in third place at 11.6%, maintaining one of the most stable trajectories of the entire season. Bookmakers continue showing confidence in Før Vi Går Hjem, which remains within striking distance of Greece heading into the next phase of Eurovision week.
Israel enters the leading group
One of the biggest developments following the Semi-Final is Israel’s rise into fourth position.
Michelle now stands at 6.6%, overtaking several countries and establishing itself as part of the leading contenders group after successfully advancing to the Grand Final.
France and Australia complete a tightly packed top six, both sitting at 6.2%.
Semi-Final qualifiers reshape the market
Several countries that qualified on Tuesday night experienced positive betting reactions following the announcement of the ten qualifiers.
Belgium, Sweden, Moldova, Croatia, Lithuania and Poland all saw varying levels of bookmaker support increase overnight, while several non-qualifiers experienced immediate market collapses after exiting the competition.
The first Semi-Final results have now created a much clearer market structure between favourites, contenders and outsiders heading into the second Semi-Final.
Current market tiers begin to emerge
Outside the leading group, Romania continues to maintain momentum at 3.8%, while Italy, Malta and Ukraine round out the current top ten.
Further down the standings, Sweden, Moldova, Cyprus, Czechia and Croatia continue fighting within a crowded outsiders category where even small market movements could still produce major ranking changes later this week.
About the ESCToday Odds Tracker
The ESCToday Eurovision Betting Odds Tracker aggregates live odds from 25 international bookmakers and updates automatically every 30 minutes throughout Eurovision week.
Each bookmaker’s odds are converted into implied probabilities before bookmaker margins are removed and normalised into a unified market consensus.
Readers can currently explore:
- Winner market
- Televote Winner
- Jury Vote Winner
- Semi-Final qualification odds
- Top 5 / Top 10 / Top 15 markets
- Specials and regional markets
Track the odds live
Follow live Eurovision 2026 betting odds from 25 bookmakers, updated every 30 minutes throughout Eurovision week.
A word of caution
Betting odds reflect market sentiment, not certainty. Eurovision history has repeatedly shown how dramatically rehearsals, live performances and qualification results can reshape the market within hours.
The betting market offers a fascinating snapshot of the race as it stands today, but the Eurovision 2026 winner remains far from decided.
