Finland continues to dominate the Eurovision 2026 betting market with a commanding lead across bookmakers, while Greece and Denmark remain the closest challengers according to the latest ESCToday Daily Betting Bulletin.
As the road to the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 continues, bookmaker confidence behind Finland shows no signs of slowing down. Based on aggregated live data from 26 major bookmakers monitored by ESCToday, Finland currently leads the Winner market with a striking 37.4% consensus win probability.
While the Nordic nation remains firmly in control of the market, the chasing pack continues to evolve behind them, with Greece and Denmark strengthening their positions among this year’s leading contenders.
Current Top 5 – Winner Market
| # | Country | Song | Win Probability | Avg Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Finland |
Liekinheitin | 37.4% | 2.11 |
| 2 |  Greece |
Ferto | 12.7% | 6.10 |
| 3 |  Denmark |
For Vi Går Hjem | 10.8% | 7.10 |
| 4 |  France |
Regarde ! | 7.0% | 11.00 |
| 5 |  Australia |
Eclipse | 6.1% | 12.70 |
Finland remains the runaway favourite
Finland’s position at the top of the market has become increasingly dominant over recent days. With a 37.4% implied probability, the bookmakers currently view Liekinheitin as the strongest Eurovision favourite at this stage of the season.
What makes Finland’s lead particularly notable is the size of the gap separating them from the competition. Greece, currently in second place, sits nearly 25 percentage points behind, highlighting the exceptional level of market confidence surrounding the Finnish entry.
This confidence is reflected consistently across all bookmakers tracked by ESCToday, rather than being driven by isolated price movements from individual operators.
Greece and Denmark lead the chasing pack
Greece remains Finland’s closest challenger with a current win probability of 12.7%. The Greek entry Ferto has maintained a stable second-place position and continues to attract support across the market.
Denmark follows closely behind at 10.8%, confirming its status as one of the biggest movers of the Eurovision 2026 season so far. For Vi Går Hjem continues to perform strongly across bookmakers, narrowing the gap to Greece and solidifying Denmark’s place among the leading contenders.
France and Australia complete the current top five with probabilities of 7.0% and 6.1% respectively.
The contenders group begins to form
Outside the leading five, the market begins to tighten considerably.
Israel (4.2%), Malta (3.3%) and Romania (2.8%) currently lead the second tier of contenders, while Italy, Sweden and Ukraine remain within striking distance should momentum shift in the coming weeks.
With rehearsals still ahead, bookmaker positions are expected to remain highly fluid as fan reactions, promotional performances and media coverage continue influencing the market.
How the ESCToday consensus works
The ESCToday Eurovision Betting Odds Tracker aggregates live odds from 26 international bookmakers and updates automatically every 30 minutes.
Each bookmaker’s odds are converted into implied probability values before the bookmaker margin (overround) is removed. The probabilities are then normalised to produce a clean market consensus representing the collective expectation of the betting market.
This approach offers a more balanced overview than relying on a single bookmaker, whose pricing may be influenced by promotional strategies or liability management.
More than just the Winner market
The ESCToday tracker also monitors a wide range of Eurovision betting markets beyond the outright winner.
Readers can currently explore:
- Televote Winner
- Jury Vote Winner
- Semi-Final qualifiers
- Top 5 / Top 10 / Top 15 finish
- Regional specials
- Head-to-head markets
All markets are updated automatically throughout the day using live bookmaker data.
Track the odds live
Track live Eurovision 2026 betting odds from 25 bookmakers, updated every 30 minutes.
A word of caution
Betting odds reflect market sentiment, not certainty. Eurovision history has repeatedly shown that rehearsals, live performances and televoting can dramatically reshape the competitive landscape within days.
The odds offer a fascinating snapshot of the race as it stands today, but the Eurovision Song Contest has never been fully predictable.
Public data sourced from 25 bookmakers including bet365, William Hill, Unibet, Betfair, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Sky Bet, Coral, Betway and more. Updated automatically every 30 minutes. Odds subject to change. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org
