The Eurovision 2026 betting market has exploded following the Second Semi-Final results, with Finland now approaching a near-majority consensus among bookmakers while Australia continues its remarkable rise as the season’s biggest dark horse.
With the Grand Final Open Dress Rehearsal currently taking place in Vienna, bookmakers across Europe are reacting aggressively to last night’s Second Semi-Final results and the first complete Grand Final lineup.
According to the latest consensus data aggregated by ESCToday from 25 international bookmakers, Finland has now surged to a massive 44.6% implied probability, strengthening its position as the overwhelming favourite to win Eurovision 2026.
However, the biggest long-term story of Eurovision week continues to be Australia, which has now firmly established itself as Finland’s primary challenger after another major overnight market move.
Current Top 10 – Winner Market
| # | Country | Song | Win Probability | Avg Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Finland |
Liekinheitin | 44.6% | 1.79 |
| 2 |  Australia |
Eclipse | 16.2% | 4.95 |
| 3 |  Greece |
Ferto | 7.2% | 11.09 |
| 4 |  Israel |
Michelle | 6.4% | 12.49 |
| 5 |  Romania |
Choke Me | 5.6% | 14.24 |
| 6 |  Denmark |
Før Vi Går Hjem | 4.0% | 20.00 |
| 7 |  Bulgaria |
Bangaranga | 2.7% | 29.13 |
| 8 |  Italy |
Per Sempre Sì | 2.5% | 32.65 |
| 9 |  France |
Regarde ! | 1.9% | 42.91 |
| 10 |  Malta |
Bella | 1.7% | 47.73 |
Finland now approaches outright dominance
The biggest development following Thursday night’s Second Semi-Final is Finland’s enormous leap in the Winner market.
Liekinheitin now stands at a staggering 44.6% implied probability, placing Finland within touching distance of an outright bookmaker majority — an exceptionally rare position at this stage of Eurovision week.
The Finnish entry has now widened the gap significantly over the chasing pack, with bookmakers reacting extremely positively both to the Semi-Final performance and ongoing Grand Final rehearsal reports emerging from Vienna.
At this point, the market increasingly sees Finland as the contest’s clear frontrunner heading into Saturday night.
Australia completes one of the biggest Eurovision betting surges in years
Australia’s rise continues to be one of the defining stories of Eurovision 2026.
Only days ago, Eclipse was considered part of the wider contenders group. Following strong Jury Show reactions and a successful Semi-Final qualification, Australia has now surged to 16.2%, firmly consolidating second place behind Finland.
The Australian entry has now overtaken several long-standing favourites and appears to be attracting growing confidence among both bookmakers and bettors ahead of the Grand Final.
With the Open Dress Rehearsal currently taking place, traders will now be closely watching whether Australia can maintain its momentum through the final rehearsal cycle.
Greece experiences significant correction
One of the sharpest market corrections overnight belongs to Greece.
After briefly challenging Finland earlier in Eurovision week, Ferto has now fallen to 7.2%, less than half of Australia’s current probability.
While Greece remains firmly inside the leading contenders group, the market appears to have cooled considerably following the completion of both Semi-Finals and the emergence of stronger momentum around Australia and Finland.
The coming Grand Final rehearsals may now prove crucial in determining whether Greece can regain lost ground before Saturday night.
Romania enters the leading contenders group
Another notable mover following the Second Semi-Final is Romania.
Choke Me has climbed to fifth place overall with a 5.6% implied probability, overtaking Denmark and moving closer to Israel inside the upper tier of the market.
Romania’s consistent upward movement throughout Eurovision week suggests bookmakers increasingly view the entry as a potential surprise package heading into the Grand Final.
Denmark and France lose momentum
Denmark, once considered Finland’s closest challenger, has now fallen to sixth place at just 4.0%.
Meanwhile France has experienced one of the most significant drops among pre-season favourites, sliding below the 2% mark despite remaining inside the overall top ten.
The rapid market shifts seen over the past 48 hours demonstrate how dramatically Eurovision momentum can change once live performances and qualification results enter the equation.
The Grand Final rehearsal cycle begins
Attention now turns fully towards the Grand Final Open Dress Rehearsal currently taking place in Vienna.
Bookmakers are expected to continue adjusting prices throughout the evening as additional rehearsal reactions, audience feedback and press impressions begin circulating online.
Historically, the period between the final rehearsals and Saturday’s live broadcast often produces some of the most aggressive market movements of the entire Eurovision season.
Track the odds live
The ESCToday Eurovision Betting Odds Tracker aggregates live odds from 25 international bookmakers and updates automatically every 30 minutes throughout Eurovision week.
A word of caution
Betting odds reflect market sentiment, not certainty. Eurovision history has repeatedly demonstrated how quickly rehearsals, jury finals and live broadcasts can reshape the market.
The betting market offers a snapshot of the race as it stands today — but the Eurovision 2026 trophy has not been awarded yet.
Public data sourced from 25 bookmakers including bet365, William Hill, Unibet, Betfair, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Sky Bet, Coral, Betway and more. Updated automatically every 30 minutes. Odds subject to change. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org
