Eurovision 2016: High Success Rates for Daily Press Poll and BigPoll in Semifinal 1

by Gil Laufer 4,801 views5

Our two prediction tools, the Daily Press Poll and the Big Poll, have managed to show outstanding success rates in predicting the qualifiers from Semifinal 1, with the Daily Press Poll predicting 8 finalists and the Big Poll predicting 9 of them.

Daily Press Poll: 8/10 [Full Daily Press Poll Coverage]

The Daily Press Poll predicts trends following the impressions of the press from the first rehearsals. The voting and results for Semifinal 1 were divided into two days, and combined in a way that will try to reflect the actual situation.

During Day 1 we had Armenia as the winner (92p) and Russia as the runner-up (90p) along with The Netherlands (53p) which got a lot of attention from the press. Czech Republic surprised us all in Day 2 setting a new high record for the poll with 110p, and Austria being the runner up with 57p. These were probably the strongest countries of this semifinal.

Setting the results of the semifinal together, we could see that also Hungary, Cyprus and Malta are likely to qualify. Places 9-10 were already in the Fighting category, that went down up to the 15th place, including countries that had a lot of work to be done after first rehearsal. Unfortunately, Iceland and Estonia did not qualify and the qualifiers were Azerbaijan (11th place) and Croatia (14th place), which managed to improve their performance in order to make them qualify.

Predicted Correctly: Armenia, Russia, Czech Republic, The Netherlands, Austria, Hungary, Cyprus, Malta

Predicted Incorrectly: Iceland, Estonia

Missed: Azerbaijan, Croatia

Big Poll: 9/10 [Full BigPoll Coverage]

The BigPoll predicts the qualifiers based on the votes from you, our fans and followers. BigPoll’s ballot opened right after the second semi-final rehearsals finished and all of our readers were invited to participate by casting their predictions.

Totally 1395 users shared their predictions from all over the world, including Panama, China, Chile and Mauritius. BigPoll is using the same voting system as the senior Eurovision Song Contest itself, so the results represented only the votes from countries participating on the first semi-final, as well as the automatic finalists which are eligible to vote; these are France, Spain and Sweden.

The BigPoll has managed to have a slightly better prediction, guessing all countries correctly, missing The Netherlands and guessing that Iceland would have qualify.

Predicted Correctly: Armenia, Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Hungary, Malta, Russia

Predicted Incorrectly: Iceland

Missed: The Netherlands


The voting for semifinal 2 of the BigPoll is still open! Find out how to cast your votes and have your say here. It is possible to find a conclusion of the Press Poll for Semifinal 2 here. Prior to the final, the concluding Press Poll will be held and the Top 10 will be revealed in a special show live on YouTube on 13 May at 23:30 CET!

 

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  • MarioVision

    Yes,this is not the most accurrate way to predict the qualifiers countries.
    Last year also countries with not good songs that were not expected to qualify did good in the voting of your Esc-Today panel.
    Its one thing to rate how good their REHEARSALS were
    & whole different case to rate how good their actual jury/ public SF live performances were.
    Of course CROATIA would had been placed high on your voting with getting many points
    if you had done this voting again for these 2 live performances that had the greatest (and only) impact.

  • MarioVision

    Really pity to see CROATIA out of your top10
    Ok, Nina might did very poorly on her rehearsal
    but this didn’t mean that she was of course ‘finished’ or ‘dead’
    & she still didn’t have more than enough chances to qualify to the Final.

  • MarioVision

    9/10 – the best score that the Euro Poll could get.

    Cause almost nobody or too few would had guessed about Netherland’s qualification
    so to have us including this country inside the 10 qualifiers.
    Too boring & bland song that would normally stay on the SF.

    And this country was also (an outsider) not high on the betting odds to get the qualification either
    at least until the last days that it rosed suddenly up to the first places there.

  • MarioVision

    ICELAND was the only country that was expected to be qualifier
    on both the euro poll & the daily press poll
    Greta was the so called ”Cyprus 2007” or ”San Marino 2013” syndrome
    that although a hot favorite to qualify, unexpectidly stayed out of the Final.

  • MarioVision

    So it doesn’t matter that only 1 country was missed
    Because, if a country like MOLDOVA or FINLAND had qualified instead
    then we wouldn’t be really regretful how on earth we missed this country.

    It only matters when a country is expected to qualify & not when its really impossible to qualify.
    But even NETHERLAND, athough being an outsider, still had slight-some chances to qualify.