The Eurovision 2026 betting market has shifted dramatically once again just hours before tonight’s Grand Final in Vienna, with Bulgaria storming into the top three while Finland’s lead continues to shrink.
According to the latest consensus data aggregated by ESCToday from 25 international bookmakers, Finland remains the favourite to win Eurovision 2026 with a 39.4% implied probability.
However, the biggest story of the latest update is Bulgaria’s explosive late surge. Bangaranga has now climbed to third place overall with 7.3%, overtaking Greece and becoming one of the fastest-rising entries of Eurovision week.
Australia also continues gaining momentum ahead of tonight’s Grand Final. Eclipse now sits firmly in second place with 23.5%, significantly reducing the gap behind Finland and strengthening its position as the Finnish entry’s main challenger.
Meanwhile Greece continues slipping after briefly emerging earlier this week as Finland’s closest competitor. Ferto now stands at 6.3%, falling outside the top three for the first time in days.
Elsewhere in the market, Israel remains stable in fifth place, Romania continues its steady rise inside the contenders group, while Denmark’s dramatic collapse continues after once being considered among the favourites earlier in Eurovision week.
The latest bookmaker movements suggest the market is becoming increasingly volatile ahead of tonight’s live broadcast, with bookmakers continuing to react to rehearsal impressions, jury reactions and growing betting activity across Europe.
Current Top 10 – Eurovision 2026 Winner Market
| # | Country | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Finland |
39.4% |
| 2 |  Australia |
23.5% |
| 3 |  Bulgaria |
7.3% |
| 4 |  Greece |
6.3% |
| 5 |  Israel |
5.9% |
| 6 |  Romania |
4.6% |
| 7 |  Denmark |
2.6% |
| 8 |  Italy |
1.9% |
| 9 |  Malta |
1.2% |
| 10 |  France |
1.1% |
Public data sourced from 25 bookmakers and updated automatically every 30 minutes. Odds subject to change. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org
