Are these tonight’s odds-on qualifiers?

by Richard West-Soley 21,653 views

After Monday evening gave juries the chance to judge the entire first semifinal, it is Australia, Iceland and Greece who look to be coming out on top in the odds.

In odds to win, Australia remains the highest country amongst the first semifinalists, averaging around sixth place across bookies. However, a strong jury performance seems to have inspired a boost in confidence for “Zero Gravity”. Decimal odds on a Kate Miller-Heidke win have considerably shortened from around 20 to as little as 8 (Bet365) at the time of writing.

Iceland is the only other country from tonight’s show to be clinging on to punters’ top tens, hovering at at the lower end of the leading group. There is less movement at this end, with odds stable around 20-25 for Hatari.

Odds to qualify

In the markets to qualify as aggregated on OddsChecker, the top looks a little different, with Greece expected by most to have a comfortable spot in Saturday’s final. If the bookies are correct – and last year, collective punter activity only predicted seven out the final ten qualifiers – these are tonight’s lucky finalists:

1. Greece
2. Australia
3. Cyprus
4. Iceland
5. Hungary
6. Serbia
7. Czech Republic
8. Slovenia
9. Belgium
10. Estonia

Bubbling under currently are:

11. Poland
12. Portugal
13. Georgia
14. Belarus
15. San Marino
16. Finland
17. Montenegro

Fans able to spot the inevitable – but elusive – surprises in that mix can enjoy excellent odds on qualification.

Second semifinalists lead the pack

It is still the artists from Thursday’s show that lead the pack with the turf accountants. Four of the top five will face their trial in that show, including the top two favourites, Netherlands (still comfortably ahead on odds of around 2) and Sweden (pacing at a close distance, around 4). France’s surge since arriving in Tel Aviv puts them in a solid third place, just pipping Russia to fourth. Azerbaijan also looks safe in fifth place.

Fans will remember that Cyprus, the runner-up of last year’s contest, struggled to make the top betting odds before sailing through its semifinal in Lisbon. “Fuego” emerged as a serious challenger to Netta’s “Toy”, snapping at Israel’s heels in the odds right to the end.

Which songs will see a similar surge in the betting at the close of broadcast this evening? Can any of the first semifinalists break through in the betting? And what will be the big surprises?