Odds Monitor: Estonia inspires confidence ahead of Bulgarian drift

by Richard West-Soley 3,211 views

Estonia inspires confidence whilst Bulgaria drifts on another day of deadlock at the top of the favourites list.
At the top of the table, the leaders of the pack have been set in stone for the past couple of days. Little movement is the trend today, with Israel hanging on to a decent lead. Norway manages to hold off France, although there is little to separate their odds today, hovering around 6/1 to 7/1.
However, Estonia benefits from a strong second rehearsal, consolidating a fourth favourite position in the win markets. Moreover, Elina’s place in the final seems more secure than ever, with the country rising to second favourite to qualify from Tuesday’s show.

Slow Bulgarian drift

Bulgaria, on the other hand, continues on a gradual but steady drift. The sink rate has been slow, but Bulgaria started off Eurovision fortnight as second favourite to win behind Israel, on odds of 5/1 to 7/1. Now, odds are firmly in the low tens, as punter confidence in Sofia 2019 seems to have waned. Currently sixth favourite, its stars seem crossed with the Czech Republic, which holds steady in fifth favourite after a stint in third for some time before rehearsals began.
Elsewhere, Australia barely manages to hang on in the top ten today. The country slips down below Italy to occupy the last of the upper slots. With best odds of 33/1 and beyond, the likelihood of an Australian victory seems to be slipping away by the day in punters’ eyes. Unusually, though, there are a couple of outliers – BetBright and BetVictor still position Jessica Mauboy on conspicuously short odds of 7/1.
The top ten favourites are as follows this evening:
  1. Israel
  2. Norway
  3. France
  4. Estonia
  5. Czech Republic
  6. Bulgaria
  7. Cyprus
  8. Sweden
  9. Italy
  10. Australia

Semifinal one qualification odds

Today, Finland finally fights its way into the top ten favourites to qualify from semifinal one. Sara Aalto sits in position 9, above a precarious Belarus. The bottom of the top ten qualifiers has seen a lot of movement this week, with countries dropping in and out incessantly. Azerbaijan, Lithuania and Armenia are currently trying to fight their way back into the safe zone.
The likely qualifiers in order of probability, according to the bookies, are as follows:
  1. Israel
  2. Estonia
  3. Bulgaria
  4. Czech Republic
  5. Cyprus
  6. Greece
  7. Austria
  8. Belgium
  9. Finland
  10. Belarus

Semifinal two qualification odds

Today, Norway finally overtook Sweden in the odds as the most likely qualifier from semifinal two. Benjamin Ingrosso seems to have few worries though, safely in second place with odds as short as 1/25.
Russia still struggles to break into the lucky top ten, while things look dicey for Romania, too; could this be the first year of semifinal heartbreak for both countries?
The top ten for semifinal two qualification looks like this tonight:
  1. Norway
  2. Sweden
  3. Australia
  4. Ukraine
  5. Moldova
  6. Netherlands
  7. Poland
  8. Denmark
  9. Hungary
  10. Latvia
Tomorrow sees not only further semifinalist rehearsals, but also the first outings for the automatic finalists. Can fresh performances break the deadlock at the top? 
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