The betting odds might be a good way to predict the result of the upcoming Eurovision Song Contest. They change frequently when a country reveals their national selection songs, presents an entry or unveils a revamped version. It is interesting to see what happened with the betting odds throughout the national selection season and find out which countries were predicted to select a strong entry and failed, and which countries managed to surprise us all.

We will look at the data starting on 31 January afternoon, when only four entries were officially known: Albania (in its Festivali i Këngës version), Belarus, Belgium and Ireland, and coming up to today. The data shows the relative place of each country to the other countries in the betting odds, and not to the betting odds themselves. The range column describes the difference between the highest and lowest placings of the country during the season.

PLACES 1-10

	31 Jan	10 Feb	29 Feb	9 Mar	18 Mar	25 Mar	Range
Russia	1	1	3	2	1	1	+2
Sweden	2	2	2	1	2	2	+1
Australia	5	3	5	3	3	3	+2
Croatia	27	29	26	22	4	4	+25
Malta	11	10	13	13	5	5	+8
Ukraine	6	6	9	8	8	6	+3
France	25	22	7	10	7	7	+18
Latvia	28	5	4	4	6	8	+24
Serbia	12	11	16	12	9	9	+7
Armenia	13	12	6	5	13	10	+8

• The top three, Russia, Sweden and Australia, have stood throughout almost the whole season in the top.
• Croatia, Latvia and France are the high climbers with Croatia going 25 places up thanks to Nina Kraljić‘s instant hit Lighthouse (going from 22 to 4 after the song presentation), Latvia choosing Justs (23 places up after the final of Supernova) and France going from 22 to 7 after announcing that Amir Haddad is going to wave the tricolor in Stockholm.
• Malta rose up to closing the top five after the new entry Walk on water was presented.
• Ukraine, Serbia and Armenia did choose well as expected.

PLACES 11-20

	31 Jan	10 Feb	29 Feb	9 Mar	18 Mar	25 Mar	Range
Cyprus	31	35	11	9	10	11	+26
Azerbaijan	15	14	10	11	12	12	+5
Italy	8	9	20	15	11	13	+12
Spain	23	27	21	20	15	14	+13
Bulgaria	40	39	30	29	22	15	+25
Poland	29	25	1	6	16	16	+28
Germany	3	4	8	7	14	17	-14
Hungary	10	18	14	17	18	18	-8
Czech Republic	35	37	37	19	20	19	+18
Iceland	20	19	18	14	19	20	-6

• Five out of the countries in the 11th-20th places have been at the top ten during the season: Cyprus, who dropped out of the top ten in the last days, Azerbaijan, Italy, Poland and Germany.
• Poland climbed all the way to the first place after Margaret and Edyta Górniak took Europe by a storm, being the leading favourites to win Krajowe Eliminacje 2016. As Michał Szpak won the selection, Poland dropped back and landed on the 16th place.
• Despite Hungary being a favourite among the fans, the win of Freddie in A Dal 2016 has helped the country climbed a little (18 to 14) but the Hungarians dropped back to 18 lately.
• Along with Cyprus and Czech Republic, Bulgaria is the high climber of this ten, as the hype around Poli Genova’s song has managed to take the country from the very bottom to the 15th place.

PLACES 21-30

	31 Jan	10 Feb	29 Feb	9 Mar	18 Mar	25 Mar	Range
Norway	4	7	12	16	17	21	-17
The Netherlands	22	20	17	18	21	22	-5
Austria	34	33	31	26	23	23	+11
Ireland	17	21	22	23	26	24	-9
United Kingdom	14	13	15	25	25	25	-12
Lithuania	16	16	24	24	24	26	-10
Denmark	7	8	29	27	28	27	-22
Estonia	9	17	19	21	27	28	-19
Belgium	42	43	35	35	33	29	+14
Israel	26	24	25	31	32	30	-8

• The strong Scandinavian countries Norway and Denmark dropped sharply after choosing their Eurovision entries as these might not be strong as in previous years.
• Surprisingly, Estonia also dropped out of the top ten, despite choosing a strong entry. This is probably based on the national selection performance that might did not appeal to the betting sites.
• The highest climber of the group is Austria. Although the entry did not climb up right after WSFÖ (held on 12 February), the uniqueness of the song among the other participants has made it stand out with improved chances of success at the contest.
• The same appeals to the entry of Belgium that was already chosen on 17 January.

PLACES 31-43

	31 Jan	10 Feb	29 Feb	9 Mar	18 Mar	25 Mar	Range
FYR Macedonia	32	32	32	30	30	31	+2
Finland	21	15	23	36	34	32	-21
Romania	18	23	28	32	31	33	-15
Greece	19	26	27	28	29	34	-15
San Marino	43	42	39	39	43	35	+8
Belarus	30	30	41	40	41	36	-11
Switzerland	39	40	36	37	37	37	+4
Bosnia & Herzegovina	36	36	34	33	36	38	-5
Slovenia	24	28	33	38	35	39	-15
Albania	33	34	40	34	39	40	-7
Georgia	38	31	42	41	38	41	-11
Moldova	37	38	43	42	40	42	-6
Montenegro	41	41	38	43	42	43	-5

• Romania, Greece, Finland and Slovenia have all dropped out of the top 20-25 to this section after announcing or choosing the national selection artists or the selected act to the Eurovision Song Contest, with Finland holding the biggest drop after the black horse Sandhja has won UMK 2016 over favourites as Saara Aalto and Mikael Saari.
• San Marino‘s late version change was appealing for the disco lovers as well as for the betting agencies, as the country climbed up eight places from the very last place in the last week.

The betting odds will continue to change frequently and maybe dramtically as well, as promo events are being held and especially during the rehearsals in Stockholm prior to the Eurovision Song Contest.

Stay tuned to ESCToday.com for more news regarding the Eurovision Song Contest 2016