Eurovision results analysis: Voting blocs & diasporas

by Marcus Klier 119 views

As always after the Eurovision Song Contest, we take a look at the results from a statistical point of view. The analysis is split into four parts and the fourth part is dedicated to the question of bloc voting and diaspora voting.

To find out how the three classic voting blocs – the Nordic countries, the former Yugoslav countries and the former USSR countries – have voted, we take a look at those blocs' results. As no country can vote for itself, contestants that are not part of these blocs would have an advantage in these statistics. Therefore, we do not consider the absolute scores but the averages votes cast.

The Nordic countries (Iceland, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark):

  1. Germany – 10.20
  2. Denmark – 7.50
  3. Romania – 6.60
  4. Belgium – 6.20
  5. France – 5.00
  6. Iceland – 3.50
  7. Turkey – 3.20
  8. Norway – 3.00
    Greece – 3.00
    Israel – 3.00
  9. Azerbaijan – 2.60
  10. Georgia – 1.80
  11. Serbia – 1.40
    Albania – 1.40
  12. Portugal – 1.00
  13. Spain – 0.80
  14. Cyprus – 0.80
  15. Ireland – 0.20
    Armenia – 0.20
  16. Moldova – 0.00
    Bosnia & Herzegovina – 0.00
    Belarus – 0.00
    United Kingdom – 0.00
    Ukraine – 0.00
    Russia – 0.00

As we can see, winning country Germany was the clear favourite in the Nordic countries getting a far higher average of points from the Nordic countries than from all countries in total. In fact, Iceland was the only country of these that did not give 12 points to Satellite. On the other hand, all three Nordic countries in the final would have reached the top ten with Denmark gaining two places (2nd instead of 4th), Iceland gaining 13 places (6th instead of 19th) and Norway gaining 12 places (8th instead of 20th). Other countries that would have done better if only the Nordic countries had voted include France (5th instead of 12th), Israel (8th instead of 14th), Cyprus and Ireland. Other countries would have finished remarkably lower, most notably Ukraine, whose entry finished in the top ten of the Eurovision Song Contest but got not a single point from the Nordic countries. Armenia would have also been found towards the end of the scoreboard despite being seen in sixth place by all countries.

The countries of former Yugoslavia (Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Slovenia, Serbia):

  1. Serbia – 8.75
  2. Germany – 8.00
    Bosnia & Herzegovina – 8.00
  3. Turkey – 7.40
  4. Albania – 4.40
  5. Georgia – 3.40
  6. Greece – 3.20
    Denmark – 3.20
  7. Romania – 3.00
  8. France – 2.80
  9. Azerbaijan – 2.00
  10. Ukraine – 1.40
    Israel – 1.40
  11. Belgium – 1.00
    Spain – 1.00
    Armenia – 1.00
  12. Cyprus – 0.80
  13. Portugal – 0.40
  14. Ireland – 0.20
  15. Norway – 0.00
    Moldova – 0.00
    Belarus – 0.00
    United Kingdom – 0.00
    Iceland – 0.00
    Russia – 0.00

Only two formerly Yugoslav countries made the final this year and in fact, Serbia and Bosnia & Herzegovina would have finished first and equal second respectively with only this bloc voting. In fact, they finished 13th and 17th in the final respectively. Germany was still seen in second place getting the same average amount of points as Bosnia & Herzegovina. Albania, which is sometimes considered a part of this bloc as well, would have been placed fourth by these countries despite only finishing 16th in the final.

The former USSR countries (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Latvia, Azerbaijan, Lithuania, Moldova, Ukraine, Estonia, Georgia):

  1. Georgia – 7.67
  2. Russia – 7.56
  3. Ukraine – 7.00
  4. Azerbaijan – 4.78
  5. Germany – 4.60
  6. Armenia – 4.44
  7. Turkey – 3.80
  8. Spain – 3.40
  9. Romania – 3.10
  10. Denmark – 2.80
  11. Israel – 2.10
  12. Belgium – 2.00
  13. Belarus – 1.89
  14. Norway – 1.50
  15. Moldova – 1.22
  16. Portugal – 1.00
  17. France – 0.70
  18. Iceland – 0.60
  19. Greece – 0.50
    United Kingdom – 0.50
  20. Ireland – 0.20
  21. Cyprus – 0.10
  22. Bosnia & Herzegovina – 0.00
    Serbia – 0.00
    Albania – 0.00

If only the former Soviet countries had voted, the top four would have all come from this bloc with Georgia (9th in the final) winning the Eurovision Song Contest ahead of Russia (11th in the final), Ukraine (10th in the final) and Azerbaijan (5th in the final). Remarkably, Azerbaijan was the most successful country in the actual voting out of this bloc. Winning country Germany was the most popular one apart from this bloc and would have finished fifth. Moldova and Belarus would have both finished in higher positions while Armenia would have kept its sixth place.

Again, probably due to the introduction of jury voting, diaspora seemed slightly reduced compared to the years before 2009. To name just a few examples: Germany did not give its 12 points to Turkey or Greece for the second time since 2003 andfor the second time ever Armenia did not receive 10 or 12 points from Belgium.

You can also read the other parts of this series:

  1. Numbers and statistics in the final
  2. Numbers and statistics in the semi final
  3. What if…?

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