Prior to the Eurovision Song Contest 2016 final, we have tried to predict who is going to win the contest using various prediction tools. It is time to take a look and see how accurate the polls were, referencing to the final result.

Three prediction tools were in use for the final:

1. Daily Press Poll (DPP) – votes by the press in Stockholm
2. BigPoll – Commentators (BPC) – votes by the commentators in Stockholm
3. BigPoll (BP) – votes by our followers and readers

Being one of the hardest years of prediction, the prediction tools have shown slightly different results. With the BigPolls predicting the Top 10, let’s compare the Top 10 predicted by the three polls to the actual one.

In total, 15 countries were predicted to end up in the Top 10 according to the polls:

[table width =”100%” style =”” responsive =”false”]
[table_head]
[th_column]Result[/th_column]
[th_column]Country[/th_column]
[th_column]DPP[/th_column]
[th_column]BPC[/th_column]
[th_column]BP[/th_column]
[/table_head]
[table_body]
[table_row]
[row_column]1[/row_column]
[row_column]Ukraine[/row_column]
[row_column]1[/row_column]
[row_column]1[/row_column]
[row_column]2[/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]2[/row_column]
[row_column]Australia[/row_column]
[row_column]2[/row_column]
[row_column]2[/row_column]
[row_column]3[/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]3[/row_column]
[row_column]Russia[/row_column]
[row_column]3[/row_column]
[row_column]3[/row_column]
[row_column]1[/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]4[/row_column]
[row_column]Bulgaria[/row_column]
[row_column]6[/row_column]
[row_column][/row_column]
[row_column]6[/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]5[/row_column]
[row_column]Sweden[/row_column]
[row_column]5[/row_column]
[row_column]4[/row_column]
[row_column]7[/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]6[/row_column]
[row_column]France[/row_column]
[row_column]9[/row_column]
[row_column]5[/row_column]
[row_column]5[/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]7[/row_column]
[row_column]Armenia[/row_column]
[row_column]4[/row_column]
[row_column]6[/row_column]
[row_column]4[/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]8[/row_column]
[row_column]Poland[/row_column]
[row_column][/row_column]
[row_column][/row_column]
[row_column]8[/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]9[/row_column]
[row_column]Lithuania[/row_column]
[row_column][/row_column]
[row_column][/row_column]
[row_column][/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]10[/row_column]
[row_column]Belgium[/row_column]
[row_column][/row_column]
[row_column]7[/row_column]
[row_column][/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]12[/row_column]
[row_column]Malta[/row_column]
[row_column][/row_column]
[row_column]9[/row_column]
[row_column]10[/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]14[/row_column]
[row_column]Israel[/row_column]
[row_column]8[/row_column]
[row_column]8[/row_column]
[row_column]9[/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]15[/row_column]
[row_column]Latvia[/row_column]
[row_column]7[/row_column]
[row_column][/row_column]
[row_column][/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]18[/row_column]
[row_column]Serbia[/row_column]
[row_column]10[/row_column]
[row_column][/row_column]
[row_column][/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]22[/row_column]
[row_column]Spain[/row_column]
[row_column][/row_column]
[row_column]10[/row_column]
[row_column][/row_column]
[/table_row]
[/table_body]
[/table]

• Despite the disbelief around the social media following the announcement of the DPP results, this poll turned out to be the most accurate; guessing 7 out of the Top 10 with four of them in the exact placings (Ukraine, Australia, Russia and Sweden)
• The BigPoll has predicted the highest number of countries in the Top 10 (8). It was the only poll to put Poland in its Top 10, and even in the exact placing (8th).
• All polls missed Lithuania as a top 10, which is actually the country’s second highest placing to date (after LT United who came 6th in 2006)
• All polls had Israel towards the end of the Top 10. Eventually, Hovi Star finished 14th.

Outside the Top 10

As the DPP has tried to predict the full outcome of the final, we can find some more successful predictions down the scoreboard:

[table width =”100%” style =”” responsive =”false”]
[table_head]
[th_column]Result[/th_column]
[th_column]Country[/th_column]
[th_column]DPP[/th_column]
[/table_head]
[table_body]
[table_row]
[row_column]11[/row_column]
[row_column]The Netherlands[/row_column]
[row_column]12 (9p)[/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]13[/row_column]
[row_column]Austria[/row_column]
[row_column]11 (15p)[/row_column]
[/table_row]

[table_row]
[row_column]16[/row_column]
[row_column]Italy[/row_column]
[row_column]18 (4p)[/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]19[/row_column]
[row_column]Hungary[/row_column]
[row_column]17 (4p)[/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]21[/row_column]
[row_column]Cyprus[/row_column]
[row_column]23 (0p)[/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]23[/row_column]
[row_column]Croatia[/row_column]
[row_column]22 (0p)[/row_column]
[/table_row]
[table_row]
[row_column]26[/row_column]
[row_column]Germany[/row_column]
[row_column]24 (0p)[/row_column]
[/table_row]
[/table_body]
[/table]

Once again, the Daily Press Poll has managed to prove its accuracy in predicting trends and a part of the correct final placings. The mixture of different opinions, outlets and countries among the press located at a Eurovision event, seem to be pretty close to the opinions of the juries and televoters around Europe.

As predicted, Ukraine won the Eurovision Song Contest 2016 with the song 1944 by Jamala.

Stay tuned to ESCToday for more news regarding the aftermath of Eurovision 2016