See more ESCToday stories in Google Search
Add ESCToday as a preferred source for more Eurovision news from us.
Add ESCToday on Google

The first Semi-final of Eurovision 2025 has concluded, and the ten qualifiers for Saturday’s Grand Final are now confirmed. While some of the bookmakers’ predictions proved accurate, the night also delivered a few surprises that defied the odds. Let’s take a closer look at how the predictions compared to the actual results.

Who qualified from Semi-final 1?

  • Norway – Lighter by Kyle Alessandro

  • Albania – Zjerm by Shkodra Elektronike

  • Sweden – Bara bada bastu by KAJ

  • Iceland – Róa by VÆB

  • Netherlands – C’est la vie by Claude

  • Poland – Gaja by Justyna Steczkowska

  • San Marino – Tutta l’Italia by Gabry Ponte

  • Estonia – Espresso macchiato by Tommy Cash

  • Portugal – Deslocado by NAPA

  • Ukraine – Bird of pray by Ziferblat

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8M1CLo377E

How did the bookmakers perform?

  • Accurate Predictions:
    Sweden, Estonia, Netherlands, Ukraine, Albania, Norway, and Poland were all heavily favored to qualify and did not disappoint.

  • Surprises of the Night:

    • Iceland: With a qualifying chance of just 41%, Iceland’s Róa defied the odds and secured a spot in the Grand Final.

    • Portugal: One of the biggest surprises, Portugal had only a 16% chance of qualifying according to the odds, but NAPA’s emotional performance clearly resonated with the audience and juries alike.

    • San Marino: Predicted as a borderline qualifier with a 49% chance, San Marino managed to edge through and continue its Eurovision journey.

  • The Big Misses:
    Despite strong predictions, Cyprus and Belgium both failed to qualify, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations.

Final Thoughts

The first Semi-final proved once again that while betting odds can offer insight, Eurovision remains as unpredictable as ever. Emotional performances, staging impact, and live show dynamics played a crucial role in tonight’s results.

Stay tuned to ESCToday for full coverage of the upcoming Semi-final 2 and continuous updates from Basel, Switzerland.


Michalis Vranis is the General Manager of ESCToday. Since 2007 he writes about Eurovision, media, technology, voting and the wider political and cultural issues surrounding the contest.