The first Semi-final of Eurovision 2025 has concluded, and the ten qualifiers for Saturday’s Grand Final are now confirmed. While some of the bookmakers’ predictions proved accurate, the night also delivered a few surprises that defied the odds. Let’s take a closer look at how the predictions compared to the actual results.
Who qualified from Semi-final 1?
Norway – Lighter by Kyle Alessandro
Albania – Zjerm by Shkodra Elektronike
Sweden – Bara bada bastu by KAJ
Iceland – Róa by VÆB
Netherlands – C’est la vie by Claude
Poland – Gaja by Justyna Steczkowska
San Marino – Tutta l’Italia by Gabry Ponte
Estonia – Espresso macchiato by Tommy Cash
Portugal – Deslocado by NAPA
Ukraine – Bird of pray by Ziferblat
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8M1CLo377E
How did the bookmakers perform?
Accurate Predictions:
Sweden, Estonia, Netherlands, Ukraine, Albania, Norway, and Poland were all heavily favored to qualify and did not disappoint.Surprises of the Night:
Iceland: With a qualifying chance of just 41%, Iceland’s Róa defied the odds and secured a spot in the Grand Final.
Portugal: One of the biggest surprises, Portugal had only a 16% chance of qualifying according to the odds, but NAPA’s emotional performance clearly resonated with the audience and juries alike.
San Marino: Predicted as a borderline qualifier with a 49% chance, San Marino managed to edge through and continue its Eurovision journey.
The Big Misses:
Despite strong predictions, Cyprus and Belgium both failed to qualify, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations.
Final Thoughts
The first Semi-final proved once again that while betting odds can offer insight, Eurovision remains as unpredictable as ever. Emotional performances, staging impact, and live show dynamics played a crucial role in tonight’s results.
Stay tuned to ESCToday for full coverage of the upcoming Semi-final 2 and continuous updates from Basel, Switzerland.
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