Eurovision 2017: 85% success for the Press Poll in the semifinals stage

by Gil Laufer 8,055 views

The two semifinals of Eurovision 2017 are now over and the results are known. It’s time to take a look at how well the Press Poll managed to predict the qualifiers that will participate in tomorrow’s grand final.

The Press Poll is a prediction tool introduced by ESCToday in 2015 in order to get a summary of each day of first rehearsals by presenting a simple question total of 35 members of the press in the press centre: Which three countries had the best three rehearsals today? Based on vocals, staging, backdrops, camera work and choreography. From each voter, five points are awarded to the first place, three to the second and one to the third. The maximum amount of points that a country can get is 175, with the record so far being 133 for Italy in 2017.

The poll is used mainly to show trends and get a first prediction regarding this year’s contest, and for the summary of the two semifinals, the countries were divided into three groups:

  • D (Direct Qualification) – Countries with a strong first rehearsal that should qualify to the final without problems.
  • S (Swinging Qualification) – Countries that should qualify depends on improvement in further rehearsals or further less predictable factors as voting patterns.
  • N (Non Qualification) – Countries that are unlikely to qualify without huge improvements or should qualify based on less predictable factors.

Semifinal 1

The press poll has placed 8 out of the 10 finalists in the top 10, having one minor mistake and one major mistake: Latvia got a higher amount of points than Poland and therefore placed 9th compared to Poland’s 11th place. However, the qualification of both was in question and at the end it was Poland who managed to get that spot.

Finland, who finished 2nd in this semifinal according to the Press Poll, was left out of the top 10. Blanche from Belgium, who went through some tough times during the first rehearsal and ended up last in this semifinal, has managed to improve sufficiently in order to grab a spot in the final. We will be able to understand more when information regarding the exact placings of Finland, Belgium and all the others will be revealed after Saturday’s final.

Country Prediction Result
1 Armenia D Q
2 Finland D
3 Moldova D Q
4 Azerbaijan D Q
5 Portugal D Q
6 Sweden D Q
7 Australia D Q
8 Cyprus S Q
9 Latvia S
10 Greece S Q
11 Poland S Q
12 Slovenia S
13 Georgia S
14 Montenegro N
15 Iceland N
16 Albania N
17 Czech Republic N
18 Belgium N Q

Semifinal 2

The prediction for the second semifinal was much more correct. Nine out of the ten qualifiers were predicted, including Austria and Croatia that were far from favourites prior to the Eurovision week. Israel, who had a tough run through the first rehearsals, has managed to get over the difficulties and provide a smooth performance during the jury rehearsal and the live show tonight. Estonia’s non qualification is probably this year’s fan-flop, although people at the press centre were concerned regarding a possible non-qualification of Koit & Laura.

Country Prediction Result
1 Bulgaria D  Q
2 Austria D  Q
3 Romania D  Q
4 The Netherlands D  Q
5 Hungary D  Q
6 Croatia D  Q
7 Estonia D
8 Belarus D  Q
9 Denmark S  Q
10 Norway S  Q
11 San Marino S
12 FYR Macedonia S
13 Israel S  Q
14 Ireland N
15 Malta N
16 Switzerland N
17 Serbia N
18 Lithuania N

The last press poll for this year’s Eurovision Song Contest will take place tomorrow night, following the jury dress rehearsal tonight. Members of the press will then be asked to award 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 points to the best five entries according to them. The results for places 11-26 will be announced on as soon as the results are in while the full Top 10 ranking will be revealed during a live broadcast on our Facebook page on Saturday at 12:00 CET.