UPD Semi final allocation draw analysis

by Marcus Klier 196 views

Today, a draw decided which country will take part in which semi final of the 2008 Eurovision Song Contest in Belgrade. Let's take a look on the outcome of the draw.

You can find the results of the draw here.

It has to be mentioned that the analysis below is based on voting statistics of recent years. Of course, it is always impossible to really predict the outcome of a voting before the contest.

First overview

The following countries that traditionally give each other many votes and couples, where one country usually gets many points from the other, will NOT be in the same semi final:

  • Turkey and the Netherlands
  • Turkey and Belgium
  • Germany and Turkey
  • Cyprus and Greece
  • Sweden and Norway
  • Finland and Sweden
  • Sweden and Estonia
  • Estonia and Lithuania
  • Estonia and Latvia
  • Gerogia and Armenia
  • Montenegro and Serbia
  • Ireland and the United Kingdom
  • Lithuania and Ireland
  • Russia and Belarus
  • Portugal and Spain
  • Switzerland and Germany
  • the United Kingdom and Greece
  • Ukraine and Poland

The following countries that traditionally give each other many votes and couples, where one country usually gets many points from the other, will be in the same semi final:

  • Moldova and Romania
  • Romania and Spain
  • Israel and Romania
  • Romania and Ireland
  • Latvia and Lithuania
  • Finland and Norway
  • Andorra and Spain
  • Belgium and the Netherlands
  • United Kingdom and Malta
  • United Kingdom and Cyprus
  • Albania and F.Y.R. Macedonia
  • Latvia and Lithuania
  • Croatia, F.Y.R. Macedonia and Serbia
  • Bosnia & Herzegovina, Slovenia and Montenegro
  • Iceland and Denmark

Detailed analysis

Scandinavia

Finland and Norway will take part in the first semi final, Sweden and Denmark in the second semi final which shows equal chances for all four countries (although Finland usually gives less points to the Scandinavian countries than the other three). On the other hand, Iceland, which usually gives many points to the Scandinavian countries, especially Denmark, is in the second semi final which might slightly raise the chances of Sweden and Denmark.

Former Yugoslavia

Montenegro, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Slovenia will take part in the first semi final, Serbia, Croatia and F.Y.R. Macedonia will vote in the second one. Since Serbia is only voting and not participating, mathematically, the Croatian and F.Y.R. Macedonian chances are slightly higher to reach the final if Serbia follows the voting patterns of recent years (nevertheless, it is highly unlikely that this will affect the results at all).

Former USSR

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Estonia and Russia will be in the first semi final, Belarus, Georgia, Lithuania, Latvia and Ukraine in the second one -again a fair allocation. The most neigbourly friendly couples – Georgia & Armenia andRussia & Belarus have been split. Apart from that, Poland, a countryusually giving top marks to Ukraineis not in the same semi final as Ukraine.

Czech Republic

Czech Republic scored only one point on their 2007 debut at the Eurovision Song Contest. Without neighbours Slovakia and nearby austria, it's hard to tell where their friendliest countries will come from. Their song this year is about having fun, and Poland seem to like 'party' songs. Unfortunately, Poland is in the other semi final and so is Estonia, the country that gave that one single point in 2007.

Switzerland

There may be a few more nerves in Switzerland after the draw today. After chosing an Italian language song, the only other remaining Italian speaking country, San Marino, was placed in the other semi final. Malta, however has a high percentage of Italian speakers and may vote for the Swiss song. Switzerland may also miss neighbours, Austria, who withdrew from the competition earlier this year after claiming that the results were too political. Serbia will miss their 12 points.

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