Norway races towards Israel as Rybak soars to second favourite

by Richard West-Soley 3,028 views

The first day of second semifinalists is over. And it was a great day for Norway, with odds on a second Rybak win continuing to rise. He finishes this evening in a strong second favourite position averaged across bookmakers.
Odds on Norway’s “That’s How You Write A Song” had already started to rise on the eve of the former victor’s first rehearsal on the Lisbon stage. His performance today – the first act on stage – appears to have inspired further betting confidence. Odds shortened to 5 with some bookmakers, with best odds of 7. Conversely, former second favourite France is clinging on right behind in third, just shy of Norway with odds of 6 to 13/2 with most outlets.

Israel still ahead – but looking over shoulder

Israel still manages to hold on to a decent lead as overall favourite, although odds have drifted slightly since Netta’s first rehearsal two days ago. Can Norway and France tighten the gap over the coming days?
Australia, conversely, falls back slightly after Jessica Mauboy’s first rehearsal earlier today. “We Got Love” still attracts a decent amount of support with the turf accountants, but slips behind Bulgaria, Estonia and Czech Republic into seventh favourite position. When it comes to odds to qualify, however, Jessica need not worry – she is currently third favourite to make it to the final from next Thursday’s show.

Cyprus is on fire

At the bottom of the top ten, Cyprus is today’s big surprise, making it into ninth after weeks in the doldrums pre-contest. Odds jumped up after an impressive performance by Eleni yesterday, and the upwards trek towards the favourites continues today. Cyprus joins Sweden and Italy in positions eight to ten for the win.

Top ten favourites to win

The top ten to win currently stands as follows according to averaged out odds:
  1. Israel
  2. Norway
  3. France
  4. Bulgaria
  5. Estonia
  6. Czech Republic
  7. Australia
  8. Sweden
  9. Cyprus
  10. Italy

Semifinal One Qualification

The favourites to qualify from semifinal one continue to shuffle at the bottom of the table. It was Finland and Belarus that snuck into today’s crop for the first time since rehearsals began. However,  Armenia and Lithuania slide out for now:
  1. Israel
  2. Estonia
  3. Bulgaria
  4. Czech Republic
  5. Cyprus
  6. Greece
  7. Austria
  8. Belgium
  9. Finland
  10. Belarus

Semifinal Two Qualification

Although Benjamin Ingrosso is only eighth favourite to win the whole contest, he is considered the most likely to qualify from semifinal two, according to the odds. After that, the state of play is:
  1. Sweden
  2. Norway
  3. Australia
  4. Ukraine
  5. Moldova
  6. Netherlands
  7. Denmark
  8. Poland
  9. Hungary
  10. Russia
The odds currently foretell a battle between Russia and Latvia for the final successful position. Punters will be braced for tomorrow’s continuation of rehearsals, however; expect more shuffling as chances are assessed, reassessed or discounted by watching fans.
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