Analysis of the running order

by Marcus Klier 52 views

Today, the draw of the running order for the 2009 Eurovision Song Contest was held. Let's take a look at the statistics.

  • You can find the draw here.


For the second year running, Montenegro will open the first semi final. The country has not qualified from this last year, but it has to be mentioned that the entry was never seen as a hot favourite to qualify. So far, three songs managed to qualify after having opened a semi final and all of them were up-tempo songs, so the draw might not be the worst possible for Montenegro. Croatia will open the second semi final. Although the country achieved one of its best placings in 1998, which was the only time they opened a contest, a ballad has never qualified for the final from number one so far but it also never occured that a classicballad was drawn first in a semi final.


Bosnia & Herzegovina will perform last in the semi final and it will be the first time that the country closes the competition. Four songshave qualified from semi finals having been drawn lastand three of them were ballads:Netherlands 2004, Latvia 2007 and Portugal 2008. All of themwould later have to face a majordownfall in the final, maybe because of an earlier draw. The second semi final will endwith the Dutch performance.They already closed the semi final in 2004 and qualified, which led to their last appearance in the finalto date.Just like the Nettherlands, Spain was allowed to decide its position in the final and they went for the last spot. Spain has not been drawn last since 1979, when Betty Missiego finished second. Since the introduction of the televoting, only two countries managed to finish in the top five of the final having been drawn last: Sweden finished eqaul fifth in 2004 and Norway finished fifth on its own last year.

The curse of number two and three

The Czech Republic will take part for the third time and for the first time, they got the unlucky second spot in the first semi final. However, Israel managed to qualify from number two last year by televoting alone, while Sweden would need the jury joker in the second semi final. Ireland got the unlucky number two in the second semi final. The last time Ireland was number two was in 1995, when Eddie Friel would finish 14th, a placing that is sandwiched between no less than four victories.

Since the introduction of televoting, the third spot was almost as unsuccessful as the second spot, although Malta could reach second place in 2005. In the first semi final, it went to Belgium for the first time since 1990. Only one song managed to qualify for the final from number three, and it was a ballad, which is also not a good sign for Latvia, the country that was drawn third in the second semi final. In the final, France was drawn number three for the sixth time already and the previous French entries at number three (1958, 1975, 1984, 1986 and 1998) show a declining trend having finished first, fourth, eighth, 17th and 24th respective, although the early contests can hardly be compared with today's situation.

For the sake of variety…

While in the first half of the first semi final, almost only up-tempo songs can be found, the show will close with three ballads in a row. In the second semi final, the line-up is more square with only few strings of songs in a similar style. However, the only two classic rock songs in this heat from Ireland and Latvia will be performed second and third.

The 2009 Eurovision Song Contest will be held on 12th, 14th and 16th May in Moscow, Russia.

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