Eurovision 2015: In-depth look at the statistcs

by Gil Laufer 325 views

Looking at the final numbers of the statistics can rise questions as “How a successful country like The Netherlands only finished 13th?” or “How come Czech Republic is last with 0 points?”. Let’s take a deep look in the statistics and see what’s going on. Keep in mind that the results are based on the voting patterns of 2008-2014.

A reminder of the full results (There was an error with Finland’s votes in yesterday’s article, these are the updates results):

SEMI-FINAL 1

Let’s take a look at the top 3 of each country:

12 points 10 points 8 points
Albania Greece FYR Macedonia The Netherlands
Armenia Georgia Russia Greece
Austria Albania Russia Greece
Belarus Russia Armenia Greece
Belgium The Netherlands Greece Hungary
Denmark Russia Finland The Netherlands
Estonia Finland Denmark Russia
Finland Estonia Hungary Denmark
France Serbia Armenia Romania
FYR Macedonia Albania Serbia Moldova
Georgia Armenia Belarus Estonia
Greece Albania Romania Armenia
Hungary Finland The Netherlands Denmark
Moldova Romania Belarus Russia
The Netherlands Armenia Greece Denmark
Romania Moldova Greece Armenia
Russia Armenia Moldova Belarus
Serbia FYR Macedonia Greece Armenia
  • We can see 12-point swaps between Albania and GreeceArmenia and Georgia, Estonia and Finland and Moldova and Romania.
  • Despite its successful participations in 2013-2014, The Netherlands are still placed low as the results are based on the last seven years. From the 8 countries who gave them 12 points in last year’s semifinal, only three countries are with The Netherlands again this year, and are expected to give them high scores – Denmark (8), Estonia (6) and Hungary (10).
  • Hungary is expected to give its 12 points to Finland after doing so in 2012. They also gave 6 and 5 points to the nordic country in 2011 and 2013 respectively. Finland itself is expected to give Hungary 10 points after awarding them 12 points in 2011 and 8 points in 2013.
  • The absence of Ukraine makes countries like Russia, Belarus and Georgia to find other countries to vote for (for example Georgia to Estonia)

SEMI-FINAL 2

Let’s take a look at the top 3 of each country:

12 points 10 points 8 points
Azerbaijan Malta Norway Israel
Cyprus Azerbaijan Norway Portugal
Czech Republic Malta Iceland Latvia
Germany Poland Iceland Portugal
Iceland Norway Ireland Sweden
Ireland Lithuania Poland Norway
Israel Azerbaijan Cyprus Sweden
Italy Poland Lithuania Switzerland
Latvia Norway Lithuania Ireland
Lithuania Latvia Azerbaijan Norway
Malta Azerbaijan Sweden San Marino
Montenegro Slovenia Azerbaijan Iceland
Norway Sweden Iceland Lithuania
Poland Azerbaijan Switzerland Lithuania
Portugal Sweden Iceland Azerbaijan
San Marino Malta Ireland Poland
Slovenia Montenegro Norway Azerbaijan
Sweden Iceland Norway Israel
Switzerland Portugal Iceland Sweden
United Kingdom Lithuania Cyprus Ireland
  • We can see 12-point swaps between Malta and Azerbaijan and Montenegro and Slovenia.
  • Malta finishes 5th with 12 points from Azerbaijan, Czech Republic and San Marino
  • Lithuania gets extra support from Ireland and United Kingdom, both awarding them 12 points
  • Czech Republic gets no points as from its two participations (2008, 2009) not enough information was available for making conclusions, plus the country has finished with 0 points in 2009.
  • A total of 12 points are missing from the scoreboard as Cyprus, Czech Republic and Italy have voted so far for less than 10 different countries in 2015’s second semi-final.

Of course, the actual result is based on the song, the performance, some might say the running order – and many more factors. This calculation is made to estimate the outcome based on the history only and we all can see some familiar patterns from the voting that might repeat themselves this year again. In Eurovision like in Eurovision – it’s not over until the last envelope is opened!

Stay tuned to ESCToday.com for more updates regarding the 2015 Eurovision Song Contest!

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