Eurovision 2014: An analysis of the semi final running order

Yesterday, the EBU released the running order for the two semi finals, let’s take a look at some statistics from the past years.

For the second year in a row, the producers of the show decided the running order to create a more exciting show by having variety as well as bring out the best in each entry. The analysis below will be based on statistics from 2008 onwards, since the introduction of two semi finals. Let’s start with the starting positions.

Semi Final Openers

Bookies favourite Armenia will open the first semi final whilst Malta will open the second one on Thursday. For both countries, it will be a first to open any show. During the past six years, the success rate of performing first and qualifying is 5/12. The best result achieved by a semi final opener is second place, by Serbia in 2012.

2008 1^st Semi – Didn’t Qualify (Montenegro) (14th)
2008 2^nd Semi – Qualified (Iceland) (8th)

2009 1^st Semi –  Didn’t Qualify (Montenegro) (11th)
2009 2^nd Semi – Qualified (Croatia) (13th) (wildcard)

2010 1^st Semi –  Qualified (Moldova) (10th)
2010 2^nd Semi – Didn’t Qualify (Lithuania) (12th)

2011 1^st Semi – Didn’t Qualify (Poland) (19th)
2011 2^nd Semi – Qualified (Bosnia & Herzegovina) (5th)

2012 1^st Semi – Didn’t Qualify (Montenegro) (15th)
2012 2^nd Semi – Qualified (Serbia) (2nd)

2013 1^st Semi – Didn’t Qualify (Austria) (14th)
2013 2^nd Semi – Didn’t Qualify (Latvia) (17th)

2nd  Position

The second position, might be one that is considered very risky. This year, Latvia and Israel will perform second. Countries who performed in this position have a qualification success rate of 8/12, which is fairly good. The best result achieved by a country drawn in the second position was 5th placed and was achieved by Israel in 2008.

2008 1^st – Qualified (Israel) (5th)
2008 2^nd – Qualified (Sweden) (12th) (Wildcard)

2009 1^st – Didn’t Qualify (Czech Republic) (18th)
2009 2^nd – Didn’t Qualify (Ireland) (11th)

2010 1^st – Qualified (Russia) (7th)
2010 2^nd – Qualified (Armenia) (6th)

2011 1^st – Didn’t Qualify (Norway) (17th)
2011 2^nd – Qualified (Austria) (7th)

2012 1^st – Qualified (Iceland) (8th)
2012 2^nd – Qualified (Macedonia) (9th)

2013 1^st – Qualified (Estonia) (10th)
2013 2^nd – Didn’t Qualify (San Marino) (11th)

Semi Final Closers

Closing the semi finals this year will be Hungary and Romania. Romania also closed the second semi final last year. Countries which performed last in their semi final have a qualification success rate of 10/12. In 2008 and 2011, Greece performed last and won their respective semi final.

2008 1^st – Qualified (Greece) (1st)
2008 2^nd – Qualified (Portugal) (2nd)

2009 1^st – Qualified (Bosnia & Herzegovina) (3rd)
2009 2^nd – Didn’t Qualify (Netherlands) (17th)

2010 1^st – Qualified (Iceland) (3rd)
2010 2^nd – Qualified (Turkey) (1st)

2011 1^st – Qualified (Greece) (1st)
2011 2^nd – Qualified (Ireland) (8th)

2012 1^st – Qualified (Ireland) (6th)
2012 2^nd – Qualified (Lithuania) (3rd)

2013 1^st – Didn’t Qualify (Serbia) (11th)
2013 2^nd – Qualified (Romania) (5th)

Other Positions

The most successful position to perform in and qualify statistically is 14th, followed by 13th and 17th. One might note that the number of countries in semi finals varied from 16th to 19th in the past 6 years.

Draw – Success Rate

14th place – 10/12
13th & 17th place – 9/12
2nd & 6th place – 8/12
7th, 10th, 12th, 15th & 18th place – 7/12
8th & 16th place – 6/12

Do you think this year, the results will follow the past statistics or will they go in a different direction?