Eurovision Results analysis: What if…?

As always after the Eurovision Song Contest, we take a look at the results from a statistical point of view. The analysis is split into four parts and the third part is dedicated to the theoretical question what would have happened if the voting had been done in a different way.

This would have been the results with only the countries in the final voting:

1. Norway – 226 points
2. Iceland – 138 points
3. Azerbaijan – 120 points
4. Turkey – 114 points
5. United Kingdom – 102 points
6. Estonia – 80 points
7. Greece – 67 points
8. Russia – 65 points
9. France – 64 points
10. Moldova – 60 points
11. Armenia – 51 points
12. Ukraine – 46 points
13. Bosnia & Herzegovina – 42 points
14. Denmark – 37 points
15. Sweden – 31 points
16. Germany – 30 points
17. Romania – 29 points
18. Portugal – 26 points
19. Albania – 24 points
20. Israel – 24 points
21. Croatia – 22 points
22. Finland – 19 points
23. Malta – 17 points
24. Lithuania – 8 points
25. Spain – 8 points

We can see that the top seven would have been identical to the actual outcome. However, some other interesting details can be seen: Russia (11th in the final) and Moldova (14th in the final) would have been in the top ten kicking out Bosnia & Herzegovina and Armenia. Bosnia & Herzegovina would have dropped to 13th place, which could be explained by the fact that only two former Yugoslav countries reached the final. Spain would have finished last with Finland rising by three places. The biggest winner would have been Sweden as Malena Ernman would have been higher by six places. Germany would have done better by four places.

Furthermore, we now take a look at the top ten if only the countries of the first or second semi finals had voted. Of course, this would not be a realistic way of voting but it is supposed to reveal if countries prefer sticking to a country they have already voted for in the semi final or if they rather swap to another country.As different numbers of countries were voting in the semi finals, we do notcompare the absolute scores given but the average scores:

We can see that while Norway was the clear favourite with both, Alexander Rybak was even more popular in the countries that could already vote for him in the second semi final. Turkey and Armenia took part in the first semi final and were more popular in the countries they competed with by a distinctive difference. Among the countries that competed and voted in the second semi final, Estonia thanks its high placing this year to the countries that have already voted for it in the semi final: Estonia was not even seen in the top ten of those who voted in the first semi final but in fifth place by the contestants of the second semi final. The same happened to Denmark. The only major exception is Greece: Sakis Rouvas was far more popular among those who could vote for him for the first time.

Stay tuned for the upcoming parts of our results analysis. The parts are:

1. Numbers and statistics in the final
2. Numbers and statistics in the semi final
3. What if…?
4. Voting blocs, friendly neighbours & diasporas