With the first semi-final over and the first clutch of happy contestants through, how have the bookmakers� predictions fared against the reality of the first public vote? Here we take a look at the betting odds as they stood just an hour before the semi-final began, and compare them to what actually took place.
Nasty shock, nice surprise
One stark difference that is immediately apparent is the failure of Ireland, despite a great deal of punter confidence that Dustin the Turkey could win the contest. Occupying the bookies’ 6th to 8th highest positions overall, the failure of Ireland is, for many, an unexpectedly premature end to one of this year’s most publicised entries.
At the other end of the scoreboard, few bookmakers seem to have spotted the potential that Poland and Israel realised in the semi-final vote. Languishing at best in the middle of the betting, and at worse towards the bottom of the pile, Isis Gee managed to pull off a first victory that was definitely not viewed as a certainty by betters across Europe. Israel, another long shot at odds from 50 to 100-1, sailed through to the final with Boaz at the helm.
Interestingly, newcomer Azerbaijan had not inspired gamblers to stake their cash in huge numbers before the semi-final, attracting longish odds of 40-1 to 66-1 in the final hour before transmission. The Belgrade air will be ringing with Azeri joy after victory emerged from that shaky public confidence.
Just as expected
Other successful entries were perhaps a fait accompli, with early forerunners Russia, Greece and Armenia storming through, as expected from the short odds they were given across the bookmakers’ sheets. Similarly, the countries sinking to the bottom of the betting pile were absent from the final list of ten: Andorra, the Netherlands, Belgium and Montenegro are just a few that will be disappointed not to have proved the punters wrong.
All in all, the bookmakers have done well in predicting the first ten – with only three conspicuous miscalculations of varying degrees, a glance at William Hill, Paddy Power, Coral and Nordic Bet would have given fans a good idea of tonight’s outcome. With the second semi-final looming, perhaps the contestants at the top of the tables can breathe a little easier – but then there are always more surprises…
