The Draw: is late great?

by John Egan 63 views

In the televote era (since 1998), who could say that anyone has won the Eurovision Song Contest because of the draw � their place in the performance order. To get enough support from across Europe to win you need more. You need to perform well, do something memorable and (in most years) have a good song. Or a great one!

We've crunched the numbers and analyzed the draw's impact on the results.

There
are a lot of assumptions about the draw. Most people assume that a late draw is
better, which is only partially true. In 2001 Tanel Padar & Dave Benton
& 2XL performed 20th of 23, winning with Everybody. The next year
Marie N salsa�d her way to first place with I wanna
, having
performed 23rd of 24.
But they�re the exceptions. Here�s a list of winners and their place in
the draw:

1998
– Isräel – Dana International – Diva
8th
(of 25)

1999 – Sweden – Charlotte Nilsson
Take me to your heaven
15 (of 23)

2000
– Denmark – The Olsen Brothers – Fly on the wings of love
14 (of 24)

2001 – Estonia – Tanel Padar & Dave
Benton & 2XL – Everybody
20 (of 23)

2002
– Latvia – Marie N – I wanna
23 (of 24)

2003
– Turkey – Sertab Erener – Every way that I can
– 4th
(of 26)

2004
– Ukraine – Ruslana – Wild dances
10th
(of 24) 11th of 22 in semi

2005
– Greece – Helena Paparizou – My number 1
– 19th
(of 24)

2006
– Finland – Lordi – Hard rock hallelujah
– 17th
(of 24) 16th of 23 in semi

That
makes Sertab in 2003 the winner from an early in the televoting era.

We
have to go back to 1998 to find a year where none of the last 4 songs performed
were in the top 5. So a late draw does have a 25% (1 in 4) chance of a top 5
result—and over 1 in 2 if we consider top 10 placements. The drawer can
impact a song�s fortunes, but unless it�s a year with no great songs or
performances, the draw is only one factor

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