Eurovision Stats a wrap! Initial results analysis

by Richard West-Soley 6,605 views

The party is barely over, but there is no rest for number-crunching fans. With the release of full results, including semifinal scoring and split jury-televote statistics, there is just as much to talk about after the event as ever. Here are some of our initial observations on a sensational contest that saw a first win for long-timer Portugal.

Great minds think alike – at the top

The new split results system caused some controversy in 2016, when the disparity between the jury and televote top three resulted in the second-placed song from both winning. However, there is no such mismatch in 2017; Salvador topped both the jury and the televote results. Likewise, Bulgaria came second with both experts and home viewers. Reassuring news for EBU officials eager to stress the viability of the new system!

There are a couple of massive differences below the top two places, however. Romania and Hungary seemed banished to the right-hand side of the scoreboard before benefitting from a very generous televote – fifth and seventh finishers respectively.

Hobbled by the televote

It works the other way, too; the UK and Austria did respectably well with the juries. But the UK’s meagre 12 points and Austria’s nil in the televote dragged the countries back down into 15th and 16th place.

Australia was also lucky that its tiny televote of 2 points (25th place) failed to pull its final position out of the top ten, with Norway remaining to hold on to the last top-ten spot after a disappointing viewer tally of 29 points (16th place). “Grab the Moment” had been placed sixth overall by juries. The Netherlands also did well with juries, finishing fifth, but a disappointing 15 points (19th place) from the televote landed them in 11th place.

The second semifinal also illustrates how juries and televoters can disagree sharply. Austria and Denmark were lucky finalists from the Thursday show, but thanks to the juries, which lifted them into the top ten. If only home voters had counted, Estonia and Switzerland would have snatched their places, leaving them towards the bottom of the table.

Clustered points

A look at the split results for the final also reveals much more clustering between the top and bottom with the televote. Viewers’ points were concentrated on the favourite ten songs, as attested to by the large gap in points – 90 to 42 – between the 10th and 11th places. By contrast, the jury points were spread more evenly across the songs.

JURYTELEVOTE
 1 Portugal 382 Portugal 376
 2 Bulgaria 278 Bulgaria 337
 3 Sweden 218 Moldova 264
 4 Australia 171 Belgium 255
 5 Netherlands 135 Romania 224
 6 Norway 129 Italy 208
 7 Italy126 Hungary 152
 8 Moldova 110 Sweden 126
 9 Belgium 108 Croatia 103
 10 UK 99 France 90
 11 Austria 93 Azerbaijan 42
 12 Azerbaijan 78 Poland 41
 13 Denmark 69 Belarus 33
 14 Armenia 58 Cyprus 32
 15 Romania 58 Greece 29
 16 Belarus 50 Norway 29
 17 Greece 48 Ukraine 24
 18 Hungary 48 Armenia 21
 19 France 45 Netherlands 15
 20 Cyprus 36 UK 12
 21 Israel 34 Denmark 8
 22 Croatia 25 Israel 5
 23 Poland 23 Spain 5
 24 Ukraine 12 Germany 3
 25 Germany 3 Australia 2
 26 Spain 0 Austria 0

Breaking records

Bulgaria and Moldova, snuggled up at the top of the table in silver and bronze, achieved their best final placings to date.

For Bulgaria, this is quite a feat, fresh from achieving the same last year, when Poli Genova finished 4th in Stockholm. Impressive stuff from a country that had, before 2016, struggled even to make it through the semifinals in most contests. As the greatest improver of 2017, there is only one place for Bulgaria to go in the future. Will we see a strong gold attempt from Sofia next year?

Spain, however, managed its worst ever placing in a Eurovision Song Contest final. This concludes a Spanish participation fraught with tension this year, after juries selected Manel ahead of the fan favourite, Mirela. Despite being a popular figure amongst fellow contestants in Kyiv, “Do It For Your Lover” failed to do it for either juries or televoters, with five points from Portuguese viewers saving it from nil points.

Failed favourites didn’t just miss out

In the semifinals, Finland and Estonia were the big fan – and bookies’ – favourites that missed out on final spots. However, neither of them ended up in the agonising 11th place, just missing out. Finland was 12th, and Estonia 14th in their respective shows.

Israel’s tumble and the effect of running order

Israel performed last in semifinal, and finished in the dizzy heights of third place. However, Imri was first on stage in the final, and sank to 23rd place, only four from the bottom. This may be one of the biggest tumbles from top to bottom since the semis began. Was it down to the performance? Or does it illustrate the effect that running order has on a song? Or maybe, is it a combination of both?

With a huge amount of data to pore over, mathematically-inclined fans will have plenty to keep them occupied over the next few days. Have you spotted any interesting nuggets? Share them in the comments!

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