Eurovision results analysis: Voting blocs & diasporas

by Marcus Klier 100 views

As always after the Eurovision Song Contest, we take a look at the results from a statistical point of view. The analysis is split into four parts and the fourth part is dedicated to the question of bloc voting and diaspora voting.

To find out how the three classic voting blocs – the Nordic countries, the former Yugoslav countries and the former USSR countries – have voted, we take a look at those blocs' top ten results. As no country can vote for itself, contestants that are not part of these blocs would have an advantage in these statistics. Therefore, we do not consider the absolute scores but the averages votes cast.

The Nordic countries (Iceland, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark):

  1. Norway – 11.0
  2. Iceland – 10.5
  3. Estonia – 6.8
  4. Azerbaijan – 5.6
  5. Turkey – 4.8
  6. Sweden – 4.5
  7. Finland – 3.0
    Denmark – 3.0
  8. France – 2.6
    Bosnia & Herzegovina – 2.6
    Germany – 2.6

As two Nordic countries finished in the top two spots in the 2009 Eurovision Song Contest, it is no surprise that they were also the favourites of the Nordic countries. However, it has to be mentioned that all five Nordic countries had been in the final and all would have made the top ten with only these five countries voting. Remarkably, Estonia and Germany were also more popular than in the other countries.

The former Yugoslav countries (Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Slovenia, Serbia, Montenegro):

  1. Bosnia & Herzegovina – 11.2
  2. Norway – 9.7
  3. Croatia – 7.0
  4. Azerbaijan – 4.6
  5. United Kingdom – 4.2
  6. Greece – 4.0
  7. Turkey – 3.8
  8. Albania – 3.6
  9. France – 2.8
  10. Iceland – 2.3

Bosnia & Herzegovina finished ninth overall but got the highest average score among the former Yugoslav countries. Norway is second and followed by Croatia, the country that in fact finished 18th and was the jury wildcard in the second semi final. Albania is often considered a part of this 'bloc' and Kejsi Tola was also very popular in these countries. On the other hand, runner-up Iceland was only seen in tenth place.

The former USSR countries (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Latvia, Azerbaijan, Lithuania, Moldova, Ukraine, Estonia):

  1. Norway – 10.7
  2. Russia – 7.9
  3. Azerbaijan – 6.8
  4. Estonia – 5.9
  5. France – 4.1
  6. Iceland – 4.1
  7. Ukraine – 3.6
  8. United Kingdom – 3.1
  9. Greece – 2.1
  10. Moldova – 2.1

Although Norway was the clear favourite here again (and it has to be mentioned that Alexander Rybak was born in Belarus), Russia was seen in second place despite actually only finishing 11th in the final. Furthermore, Ukraine and Moldova were placed much higher. On the other hand, the French entry was also very popular, probably due to Patricia Kaas' popularity in these countries.

Probably due to the introduction of jury voting, diaspora seemed slightly reduced this year. To name just a few examples: Ireland gave its 12 points not to a Baltic state in a Eurovision final for the first time since 2004, Germany did not give its 12 points to Turkey or Greece for the first time since 2003 andfor the first time ever Armenia did not receive 10 or 12 points from Belgium.

Also read the other parts of this series:

  1. Numbers and statistics in the final
  2. Numbers and statistics in the semi final
  3. What if…?

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