Big Poll – the first emerging trends

by Benny Royston 52 views

The launch of the seventh annual esctoday.com BigPoll is well and truly underway with more than 32,500 predictions already cast. This year, the poll has been delayed as a way that we believe will improve the accuracy of the final outcomes. Whilst the results are not announced before the polls close to prevent predictions being altered to change the standings and to prevent predictions being used to benefit favourites, some interesting information can be mentioned.

How the results are worked out

The results of the BigPoll break down the predictions from across Europe into their country of origin. The votes are then added together to produce a Eurovision score based on the voting system of the Eurovision Song Contest. Within the first 24 hours of voting, at least three predictions have been received from all 42 participating countries, and in total, from 49 countries. The country with the most completed predictions at this stage numbers 132. Remember, predictions can be altered and updated right up until three hours before the start of the show.

Two countries miss out through vote split

Interestingly, one country drops out of the top ten in the first semi finalwhen adding the total number of scores across all 42 countries, but remains safe in the semi final according to votes of the 20 countries that will decide the outcome of the first semi final. The country that would replace it scores heavily with countries that cannot vote in the first semi final.

In the second semi final, the country in 13th place would jump to ninth place if allcountries were to be allowed to vote, but is alarmingly drops along way behind the top ten based on the 22 voting countries according to predictions cast so far.

The closest country predictions to the current standings

In the first semi final, Bulgarian and Maltese reader predictions have both predicted that the top ten countries will be the current top ten in the voting. They have both provided results that match the top 10 songs in order, not including the place of their own countries. In the second semi final, only Polish voters have predicted a top ten that matches the overall voting of the second semi final.

Interesting anomalies

The country currently predicted to win the second semi final is only in thrid in the list of countries predicted to finish in the top 10 the most often.

More updates about voting will be announced in the coming days.

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