Two semi finals down, one show to go. The Eurovision circus is ready to crown the winner of the 69th Eurovision Song Contest tomorrow in Basel, Switzerland. Who will be the successor of Nemo to lift the crystal trophy inside St. Jakobshalle? Bookmakers from around the world have been scrutinising this week’s performances trying to predict the future.
With just hours to spare from the Grand Final Evening preview tonight 16 May 2025 at 21.00 CET, the bookmakers still be on Sweden to win the 2025 Eurovision Song Contest with Bara bada bastu. However, clear movements are happening in the odds indicating possible changes in predictions.
Sweden vs Austria? Yes, but
They have been consistently sitting on top of the betting odds for the last weeks. Sweden and Austria are still comfortably in the lead according to bookmakers to win this year’s Eurovision. They are accredited now with 42% and 21% of winning chances respectively. Two days ago before the second semi final they had exactly the same numbers.
Movements have happened behind them. France is seeing a surge in winning chances in the aftermath of the second semi final. Louane has gone up from 6 to 9% in the last hours, coming somewhat closer to the duo in the lead. Could Maman become the first entry in French to win Eurovision since Ne partez pas sans moi in 1988?
Down the podium
The Netherlands are still in fourth position after having peaked in third briefly. Their odds have gone down slightly, from 6 to 5% in the last 48 hours. Finland is growing, moving up one place from 6th to 5th, and winning chances from 3 to 4%. The energetic Ich komme has impressed more than one Eurofan during the second semi final. The Finnish move goes at the expense of Israel, now in 6th place and outside the top 5 for the first time in more than two months.
The top 10 of the betting odds
- Sweden – 42%
- Austria – 21%
- France – 9%
- Netherlands – 5%
- Finland – 4%
- Israel – 3%
- Estonia – 3%
- Switzerland – 3%
- Albania – 2%
- Malta – 1%
Will bookmakers predict correctly and we are then going towards a historic 8th victory for Sweden? We shall remind ourselves that last year Croatia was given triumphant at the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest with 52% winning chances during the Grand Final. The trophy went to Switzerland who was given 15% of winning chances in third position.
