The first Semi-final of Eurovision 2025 has concluded, and the ten qualifiers for Saturday’s Grand Final are now confirmed. While some of the bookmakers’ predictions proved accurate, the night also delivered a few surprises that defied the odds. Let’s take a closer look at how the predictions compared to the actual results.
Who qualified from Semi-final 1?
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Norway – Lighter by Kyle Alessandro
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Albania – Zjerm by Shkodra Elektronike
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Sweden – Bara bada bastu by KAJ
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Iceland – Róa by VÆB
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Netherlands – C’est la vie by Claude
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Poland – Gaja by Justyna Steczkowska
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San Marino – Tutta l’Italia by Gabry Ponte
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Estonia – Espresso macchiato by Tommy Cash
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Portugal – Deslocado by NAPA
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Ukraine – Bird of pray by Ziferblat
How did the bookmakers perform?
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Accurate Predictions:
Sweden, Estonia, Netherlands, Ukraine, Albania, Norway, and Poland were all heavily favored to qualify and did not disappoint. -
Surprises of the Night:
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Iceland: With a qualifying chance of just 41%, Iceland’s Róa defied the odds and secured a spot in the Grand Final.
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Portugal: One of the biggest surprises, Portugal had only a 16% chance of qualifying according to the odds, but NAPA’s emotional performance clearly resonated with the audience and juries alike.
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San Marino: Predicted as a borderline qualifier with a 49% chance, San Marino managed to edge through and continue its Eurovision journey.
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The Big Misses:
Despite strong predictions, Cyprus and Belgium both failed to qualify, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations.
Final Thoughts
The first Semi-final proved once again that while betting odds can offer insight, Eurovision remains as unpredictable as ever. Emotional performances, staging impact, and live show dynamics played a crucial role in tonight’s results.
Stay tuned to ESCToday for full coverage of the upcoming Semi-final 2 and continuous updates from Basel, Switzerland.
