Eurovision 2025: Who will qualify from Semi-final 1? The bookmakers have their say!

Tonight, the excitement reaches new heights as the first Semi-final of Eurovision 2025 takes place in Basel, Switzerland. With the show just hours away, bookmakers have locked in their final predictions. Which ten countries will secure their place in Saturday’s Grand Final? Let’s take a look at the latest odds and expectations.

Top 10 predicted qualifiers – Semi-final 1 (as of 13 May 2025)

1. Sweden – Bara bada bastu by KAJ
   Qualifying chance: 95% | Best odds: 1.01
   Sweden stands out as the clear favourite to qualify. KAJ’s vibrant performance and strong stage presence have captured the attention of both juries and fans.

2. Estonia – Espresso macchiato by Tommy Cash
   Qualifying chance: 94% | Best odds: 1.01
   Estonia brings a bold and unconventional show tonight. Tommy Cash’s unique style is expected to deliver one of the most talked-about performances.

3. Netherlands – C’est la vie by Claude
   Qualifying chance: 94% | Best odds: 1.01
   Claude’s catchy and polished pop track has made a strong impact during rehearsals. The Netherlands is considered a safe bet for the final.

4. Ukraine – Bird of pray by Ziferblat
   Qualifying chance: 93% | Best odds: 1.01
   Ukraine is a consistent qualifier, and this year’s emotional performance is expected to secure yet another spot in the Grand Final.

5. Albania – Zjerm by Shkodra Elektronike
   Qualifying chance: 93% | Best odds: 1.01
   Albania brings powerful ethnic sounds blended with modern beats. A high-energy performance is expected to help Albania qualify comfortably.

6. Cyprus – Shh by Theo Evan
   Qualifying chance: 87% | Best odds: 1.08
   Theo Evan’s charismatic performance and radio-friendly song have kept Cyprus firmly in the predicted qualifiers.

7. Norway – Lighter by Kyle Alessandro
   Qualifying chance: 83% | Best odds: 1.13
   Norway offers one of the most uplifting songs of the night. Kyle Alessandro’s engaging stage presence is likely to win over audiences.

8. Poland – Gaja by Justyna Steczkowska
   Qualifying chance: 83% | Best odds: 1.10
   Justyna Steczkowska’s commanding vocals and emotional performance put Poland in a strong position to qualify.

9. Belgium – Strobe lights by Red Sebastian
   Qualifying chance: 81% | Best odds: 1.15
   Belgium’s energetic and visually striking performance brings the party atmosphere to the stage, making it a likely qualifier.

10. San Marino – Tutta l’Italia by Gabry Ponte
    Qualifying chance: 49% | Best odds: 1.91
    San Marino is on the qualification bubble, but Gabry Ponte’s lively performance could just secure the country a rare spot in the final.

Outside the Top 10: Can anyone cause a surprise?

Slovenia, Iceland, and Azerbaijan remain hopeful but face an uphill battle. At the bottom of the bookmakers’ predictions, Croatia and Portugal are seen as the least likely to qualify tonight