Eurovision 2016 Betting Odds: Ups and Downs through the season

by Gil Laufer 936 views

The betting odds might be a good way to predict the result of the upcoming Eurovision Song Contest. They change frequently when a country reveals their national selection songs, presents an entry or unveils a revamped version. It is interesting to see what happened with the betting odds throughout the national selection season and find out which countries were predicted to select a strong entry and failed, and which countries managed to surprise us all.

We will look at the data starting on 31 January afternoon, when only four entries were officially known: Albania (in its Festivali i Këngës version), Belarus, Belgium and Ireland, and coming up to today. The data shows the relative place of each country to the other countries in the betting odds, and not to the betting odds themselves. The range column describes the difference between the highest and lowest placings of the country during the season.


31 Jan10 Feb29 Feb9 Mar18 Mar25 MarRange
Russia Russia113211+2
Sweden Sweden222122+1
Australia Australia535333+2
Croatia Croatia2729262244+25
Malta Malta1110131355+8
Ukraine Ukraine669886+3
France France252271077+18
Latvia Latvia2854468+24
Serbia Serbia1211161299+7
Armenia Armenia1312651310+8
  • The top three, Russia, Sweden and Australia, have stood throughout almost the whole season in the top.
  • Croatia, Latvia and France are the high climbers with Croatia going 25 places up thanks to Nina Kraljić‘s instant hit Lighthouse (going from 22 to 4 after the song presentation), Latvia choosing Justs (23 places up after the final of Supernova) and France going from 22 to 7 after announcing that Amir Haddad is going to wave the tricolor in Stockholm.
  • Malta rose up to closing the top five after the new entry Walk on water was presented.
  • Ukraine, Serbia and Armenia did choose well as expected.

PLACES 11-20

31 Jan10 Feb29 Feb9 Mar18 Mar25 MarRange
Czech RepublicCzech Republic353737192019+18
  • Five out of the countries in the 11th-20th places have been at the top ten during the season: Cyprus, who dropped out of the top ten in the last days, Azerbaijan, Italy, Poland and Germany.
  • Poland climbed all the way to the first place after Margaret and Edyta Górniak took Europe by a storm, being the leading favourites to win Krajowe Eliminacje 2016. As Michał Szpak won the selection, Poland dropped back and landed on the 16th place.
  • Despite Hungary being a favourite among the fans, the win of Freddie in A Dal 2016 has helped the country climbed a little (18 to 14) but the Hungarians dropped back to 18 lately.
  • Along with Cyprus and Czech Republic, Bulgaria is the high climber of this ten, as the hype around Poli Genova’s song has managed to take the country from the very bottom to the 15th place.

PLACES 21-30

31 Jan10 Feb29 Feb9 Mar18 Mar25 MarRange
Norway Norway4712161721-17
The Netherlands The Netherlands222017182122-5
Austria Austria343331262323+11
Ireland Ireland172122232624-9
United Kingdom United Kingdom141315252525-12
Lithuania Lithuania161624242426-10
Denmark Denmark7829272827-22
Estonia Estonia91719212728-19
Belgium Belgium424335353329+14
Israel Israel262425313230-8
  • The strong Scandinavian countries Norway and Denmark dropped sharply after choosing their Eurovision entries as these might not be strong as in previous years.
  • Surprisingly, Estonia also dropped out of the top ten, despite choosing a strong entry. This is probably based on the national selection performance that might did not appeal to the betting sites.
  • The highest climber of the group is Austria. Although the entry did not climb up right after WSFÖ (held on 12 February), the uniqueness of the song among the other participants has made it stand out with improved chances of success at the contest.
  • The same appeals to the entry of Belgium that was already chosen on 17 January.

PLACES 31-43

31 Jan10 Feb29 Feb9 Mar18 Mar25 MarRange
FYR Macedonia FYR Macedonia323232303031+2
Finland Finland211523363432-21
Romania Romania182328323133-15
Greece Greece192627282934-15
San Marino San Marino434239394335+8
Belarus Belarus303041404136-11
Switzerland Switzerland394036373737+4
Bosnia & Herzegovina Bosnia & Herzegovina363634333638-5
Slovenia Slovenia242833383539-15
Albania Albania333440343940-7
Georgia Georgia383142413841-11
Moldova Moldova373843424042-6
Montenegro Montenegro414138434243-5
  • Romania, Greece, Finland and Slovenia have all dropped out of the top 20-25 to this section after announcing or choosing the national selection artists or the selected act to the Eurovision Song Contest, with Finland holding the biggest drop after the black horse Sandhja has won UMK 2016 over favourites as Saara Aalto and Mikael Saari.
  • San Marino‘s late version change was appealing for the disco lovers as well as for the betting agencies, as the country climbed up eight places from the very last place in the last week.

The betting odds will continue to change frequently and maybe dramtically as well, as promo events are being held and especially during the rehearsals in Stockholm prior to the Eurovision Song Contest.

Stay tuned to for more news regarding the Eurovision Song Contest 2016


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