The betting odds might be a good way to predict the result of the upcoming Eurovision Song Contest. They change frequently when a country reveals their national selection songs, presents an entry or unveils a revamped version. It is interesting to see what happened with the betting odds throughout the national selection season and find out which countries were predicted to select a strong entry and failed, and which countries managed to surprise us all.

We will look at the data starting on 31 January afternoon, when only four entries were officially known: Albania (in its Festivali i Këngës version), Belarus, Belgium and Ireland, and coming up to today. The data shows the relative place of each country to the other countries in the betting odds, and not to the betting odds themselves. The range column describes the difference between the highest and lowest placings of the country during the season.

PLACES 1-10

31 Jan 10 Feb 29 Feb 9 Mar 18 Mar 25 Mar Range
Russia Russia 1 1 3 2 1 1 +2
Sweden Sweden 2 2 2 1 2 2 +1
Australia Australia 5 3 5 3 3 3 +2
Croatia Croatia 27 29 26 22 4 4 +25
Malta Malta 11 10 13 13 5 5 +8
Ukraine Ukraine 6 6 9 8 8 6 +3
France France 25 22 7 10 7 7 +18
Latvia Latvia 28 5 4 4 6 8 +24
Serbia Serbia 12 11 16 12 9 9 +7
Armenia Armenia 13 12 6 5 13 10 +8
  • The top three, Russia, Sweden and Australia, have stood throughout almost the whole season in the top.
  • Croatia, Latvia and France are the high climbers with Croatia going 25 places up thanks to Nina Kraljić‘s instant hit Lighthouse (going from 22 to 4 after the song presentation), Latvia choosing Justs (23 places up after the final of Supernova) and France going from 22 to 7 after announcing that Amir Haddad is going to wave the tricolor in Stockholm.
  • Malta rose up to closing the top five after the new entry Walk on water was presented.
  • Ukraine, Serbia and Armenia did choose well as expected.

PLACES 11-20

31 Jan 10 Feb 29 Feb 9 Mar 18 Mar 25 Mar Range
CyprusCyprus 31 35 11 9 10 11 +26
AzerbaijanAzerbaijan 15 14 10 11 12 12 +5
ItalyItaly 8 9 20 15 11 13 +12
SpainSpain 23 27 21 20 15 14 +13
BulgariaBulgaria 40 39 30 29 22 15 +25
PolandPoland 29 25 1 6 16 16 +28
GermanyGermany 3 4 8 7 14 17 -14
HungaryHungary 10 18 14 17 18 18 -8
Czech RepublicCzech Republic 35 37 37 19 20 19 +18
IcelandIceland 20 19 18 14 19 20 -6
  • Five out of the countries in the 11th-20th places have been at the top ten during the season: Cyprus, who dropped out of the top ten in the last days, Azerbaijan, Italy, Poland and Germany.
  • Poland climbed all the way to the first place after Margaret and Edyta Górniak took Europe by a storm, being the leading favourites to win Krajowe Eliminacje 2016. As Michał Szpak won the selection, Poland dropped back and landed on the 16th place.
  • Despite Hungary being a favourite among the fans, the win of Freddie in A Dal 2016 has helped the country climbed a little (18 to 14) but the Hungarians dropped back to 18 lately.
  • Along with Cyprus and Czech Republic, Bulgaria is the high climber of this ten, as the hype around Poli Genova’s song has managed to take the country from the very bottom to the 15th place.

PLACES 21-30

31 Jan 10 Feb 29 Feb 9 Mar 18 Mar 25 Mar Range
Norway Norway 4 7 12 16 17 21 -17
The Netherlands The Netherlands 22 20 17 18 21 22 -5
Austria Austria 34 33 31 26 23 23 +11
Ireland Ireland 17 21 22 23 26 24 -9
United Kingdom United Kingdom 14 13 15 25 25 25 -12
Lithuania Lithuania 16 16 24 24 24 26 -10
Denmark Denmark 7 8 29 27 28 27 -22
Estonia Estonia 9 17 19 21 27 28 -19
Belgium Belgium 42 43 35 35 33 29 +14
Israel Israel 26 24 25 31 32 30 -8
  • The strong Scandinavian countries Norway and Denmark dropped sharply after choosing their Eurovision entries as these might not be strong as in previous years.
  • Surprisingly, Estonia also dropped out of the top ten, despite choosing a strong entry. This is probably based on the national selection performance that might did not appeal to the betting sites.
  • The highest climber of the group is Austria. Although the entry did not climb up right after WSFÖ (held on 12 February), the uniqueness of the song among the other participants has made it stand out with improved chances of success at the contest.
  • The same appeals to the entry of Belgium that was already chosen on 17 January.

PLACES 31-43

31 Jan 10 Feb 29 Feb 9 Mar 18 Mar 25 Mar Range
FYR Macedonia FYR Macedonia 32 32 32 30 30 31 +2
Finland Finland 21 15 23 36 34 32 -21
Romania Romania 18 23 28 32 31 33 -15
Greece Greece 19 26 27 28 29 34 -15
San Marino San Marino 43 42 39 39 43 35 +8
Belarus Belarus 30 30 41 40 41 36 -11
Switzerland Switzerland 39 40 36 37 37 37 +4
Bosnia & Herzegovina Bosnia & Herzegovina 36 36 34 33 36 38 -5
Slovenia Slovenia 24 28 33 38 35 39 -15
Albania Albania 33 34 40 34 39 40 -7
Georgia Georgia 38 31 42 41 38 41 -11
Moldova Moldova 37 38 43 42 40 42 -6
Montenegro Montenegro 41 41 38 43 42 43 -5
  • Romania, Greece, Finland and Slovenia have all dropped out of the top 20-25 to this section after announcing or choosing the national selection artists or the selected act to the Eurovision Song Contest, with Finland holding the biggest drop after the black horse Sandhja has won UMK 2016 over favourites as Saara Aalto and Mikael Saari.
  • San Marino‘s late version change was appealing for the disco lovers as well as for the betting agencies, as the country climbed up eight places from the very last place in the last week.

The betting odds will continue to change frequently and maybe dramtically as well, as promo events are being held and especially during the rehearsals in Stockholm prior to the Eurovision Song Contest.

Stay tuned to ESCToday.com for more news regarding the Eurovision Song Contest 2016

 

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