Looking at the final numbers of the statistics can rise questions as “How a successful country like The Netherlands only finished 13th?” or “How come Czech Republic is last with 0 points?”. Let’s take a deep look in the statistics and see what’s going on. Keep in mind that the results are based on the voting patterns of 2008-2014.

A reminder of the full results (There was an error with Finland’s votes in yesterday’s article, these are the updates results):

SEMI-FINAL 1

Let’s take a look at the top 3 of each country:

	12 points	10 points	8 points
Albania	Greece	FYR Macedonia	The Netherlands
Armenia	Georgia	Russia	Greece
Austria	Albania	Russia	Greece
Belarus	Russia	Armenia	Greece
Belgium	The Netherlands	Greece	Hungary
Denmark	Russia	Finland	The Netherlands
Estonia	Finland	Denmark	Russia
Finland	Estonia	Hungary	Denmark
France	Serbia	Armenia	Romania
FYR Macedonia	Albania	Serbia	Moldova
Georgia	Armenia	Belarus	Estonia
Greece	Albania	Romania	Armenia
Hungary	Finland	The Netherlands	Denmark
Moldova	Romania	Belarus	Russia
The Netherlands	Armenia	Greece	Denmark
Romania	Moldova	Greece	Armenia
Russia	Armenia	Moldova	Belarus
Serbia	FYR Macedonia	Greece	Armenia

• We can see 12-point swaps between Albania and Greece, Armenia and Georgia, Estonia and Finland and Moldova and Romania.
• Despite its successful participations in 2013-2014, The Netherlands are still placed low as the results are based on the last seven years. From the 8 countries who gave them 12 points in last year’s semifinal, only three countries are with The Netherlands again this year, and are expected to give them high scores – Denmark (8), Estonia (6) and Hungary (10).
• Hungary is expected to give its 12 points to Finland after doing so in 2012. They also gave 6 and 5 points to the nordic country in 2011 and 2013 respectively. Finland itself is expected to give Hungary 10 points after awarding them 12 points in 2011 and 8 points in 2013.
• The absence of Ukraine makes countries like Russia, Belarus and Georgia to find other countries to vote for (for example Georgia to Estonia)

• We can see 12-point swaps between Malta and Azerbaijan and Montenegro and Slovenia.
• Malta finishes 5th with 12 points from Azerbaijan, Czech Republic and San Marino
• Lithuania gets extra support from Ireland and United Kingdom, both awarding them 12 points
• Czech Republic gets no points as from its two participations (2008, 2009) not enough information was available for making conclusions, plus the country has finished with 0 points in 2009.
• A total of 12 points are missing from the scoreboard as Cyprus, Czech Republic and Italy have voted so far for less than 10 different countries in 2015’s second semi-final.

Of course, the actual result is based on the song, the performance, some might say the running order – and many more factors. This calculation is made to estimate the outcome based on the history only and we all can see some familiar patterns from the voting that might repeat themselves this year again. In Eurovision like in Eurovision – it’s not over until the last envelope is opened!

Stay tuned to ESCToday.com for more updates regarding the 2015 Eurovision Song Contest!